Ten wins. Throughout the AFC North’s more than two-decade history, that’s been the minimum benchmark needed to win the division. That’s set to change in 2025.
Once viewed as arguably the NFL’s best division entering the season that could plausibly produce three playoff teams, only one will make it this year. The winner of the North has good odds of winning just nine games. If so, it would be the first time in its history that a single-digit team took home the crown.
Formed in 2002 as part of realignment as the Houston Texans became a franchise, every AFC North winner has registered at least 10 wins. Starting with the first year of the North when Pittsburgh went 10-5-1, tying the Atlanta Falcons 34-34 in the “Plaxico Burress fell 1 yard short” game. In 2003, the Baltimore Ravens took the crown at 10-6.
In recent years, more than 10 wins has been the norm. Last year, the Ravens secured it with 12 victories after going 13-4 the year before. The Cincinnati Bengals took it in 2022 at 12-4 (with one game cancelled after Damar Hamlin’s near-death moment).
The last team to win 10 games and capture the North were the Bengals in 2021. No team has ever won it with nine.
During the old days of the four, five, and *six* team AFC Central, the last team to win with nine was the 1990 Cincinnati Bengals. The last time Pittsburgh won it with nine wins was 1984, the only team above .500 that season.
Assuming no tie, the winner of Sunday’s Steelers/Ravens games will reach seven victories. But they will need to win three of their final four to reach double-digits. Neither team’s play nor their schedules look favorable. Baltimore travels to Cincinnati next weekend, a team that just spanked them on Thanksgiving, followed by hosting the New England Patriots, the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau, and going to Pittsburgh for the rematch. The Steelers host the Miami Dolphins next Monday night, then go to the Detroit Lions on a short week. The season ends on the road against Cleveland and home to see Baltimore again.
For either side, splitting those final four is a more likely outcome.
Could eight wins even do the trick? Theoretically. But that could invite the Bengals back into the fold, who would have legitimate playoff life in such a scenario. Especially given a schedule that has Arizona, Miami and Cleveland on the docket. All winnable games.
The twist is the bar has been lowered despite a 17th game added that, on paper, would reduce the likelihood of nine wins taking home the division crown. Last year, all NFL division winners won 10-plus games. Since the schedule expanded in 2021, there’s only been three instances of nine victories being “good enough.” Twice in 2022 with the AFC South and NFC South (its leader only had eight wins) and the NFC South again in 2023.
The AFC North’s standard has been as high as anyone’s. This looks like the year where that standard has been dropped. Not just by Pittsburgh, but by everyone. At the same time, it’s as winnable as ever. If the Steelers fall short, it’ll be all the more disappointing. And extend the franchise’s drought of five straight seasons without laying claim to the North.
