The Buffalo Bills seemed to be surrendering control of the AFC East to the New England Patriots, with their streak of division titles appearing likely to end at five.
New England jumped to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter and looked ready to blow out Buffalo. The Bills were held scoreless until just after the two-minute warning of the first half. Then, Josh Allen and the Bills scored 35 points in the final 32 minutes to keep their division hopes alive.
What Are the Buffalo Bills’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the AFC East?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Bills have a 30.6% chance of winning the AFC East, up from 14.5%, and a 97.1% chance of making the playoffs. The Bills would have a 4.5% chance of the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers both have 10-4 records. However, the Chargers are currently the fifth seed, while the Bills are the sixth seed due to the conference record tiebreaker. Los Angeles is 8-2 against AFC teams, and Buffalo is 7-3.
The Houston Texans are one game behind at 9-5 and hold the seventh seed. They own the tiebreaker over the Bills because Houston won the Week 12 matchup. The Indianapolis Colts are outside the playoffs because the Texans own the tiebreaker.
The Bills are in good shape for a Wild Card berth. They own the tiebreaker advantage over most teams below them in the standings. Currently, the Bills hold a slight lead over the Colts due to a better conference record.
The tiebreaker after head-to-head is division record. If the two teams have the same record, the Bills would need to lose at least one of their two remaining games against AFC opponents.
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PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric ranks Buffalo’s remaining schedule as the 25th hardest. According to PFSN analytics, the Bills have a 55.3% chance of winning each of their final three games.
- Week 16: at Cleveland Browns (67.9% chance to win)
- Week 17: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (55.3% chance to win)
- Week 18: vs. New York Jets (73.7% chance to win)
The Chargers have less than a 50% chance of winning in all three of their final games against the Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos.
The Colts also have less than a 50% chance of winning in games against the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.
The Texans face the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chargers, and the Colts, with a win chance of at least 58% in each game.
Two more wins should be enough for the Bills to secure a postseason spot because the three teams tied with them or a game behind play each other.
Buffalo will need Josh Allen to continue to carry them in the final few weeks of the season if they are going to rally back to win the AFC East. Allen holds the top spot in PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi) rankings.
The Bills’ defense will need to improve after allowing over 30 points the last two weeks.