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TLDR Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggests XRP ETFs will likely see less demand than Bitcoin ETFs but remain significant. CME Group’s record $1B in XRP futures open interest fuels speculation about higher demand for XRP products. Nate Geraci of NovaDius Wealth Management argues institutional appetite for XRP ETFs is stronger than many believe. XRP ETFs are expected to be approved in 2025, with an 82% chance according to Polymarket bettors. The debate over the demand for XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been reignited following comments from Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg. Balchunas clarified his earlier remarks, stating that while there is interest in XRP ETFs, it will likely be smaller than that for Bitcoin ETFs. He noted that the further an asset moves away from Bitcoin in the digital asset space, the less capital it tends to attract. This is consistent with broader trends in institutional investment, where Bitcoin has maintained a dominant position. Despite this, Balchunas did not deny the demand for XRP ETFs altogether. His clarification comes amid growing signs of institutional interest in XRP-based financial products. The latest data from the CME Group reveals that XRP futures contracts crossed $1 billion in open interest in under four months, marking the fastest growth rate for a futures contract in recent memory. This rapid uptake has fueled speculation that XRP may see stronger demand for its ETFs than many initially expected. Institutional Appetite for XRP Products Surges The surge in open interest for XRP futures is a key indicator of growing institutional interest in the asset. XRP futures surpassed $800 million in assets, reflecting a burgeoning market for XRP products. Nate Geraci, the president of ETF Store, argued that these figures demonstrate a more robust institutional appetite for XRP than is widely acknowledged. According to Geraci, the data suggests that XRP is not just a niche asset, but one that could attract significant institutional capital once ETFs are available. We never said no demand. We did however make up an easy to remember rhyme to describe how alt coin etfs will likely play out: “the further away you get from btc, the less assets there will be.” https://t.co/661keZboUt — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 27, 2025 The interest in XRP products also follows a broader trend in the crypto space, where institutional investors are increasingly looking beyond Bitcoin for exposure to alternative assets. As traditional finance players become more comfortable with digital assets, products like XRP ETFs are gaining traction. Investors are seeking exposure to a broader range of cryptocurrencies, with XRP being one of the most popular choices outside of Bitcoin. XRP ETF Approval Odds and Market Expectations As the SEC continues to delay decisions on various spot XRP ETF proposals, market participants are increasingly optimistic about the chances of approval in 2025. Bloomberg analysts previously stated that the odds of XRP ETFs being approved this year are “extremely high.” According to Polymarket bettors, there is an 82% chance that XRP ETFs will be greenlit before the end of 2025. This optimism stems from the growing recognition of XRP as a legitimate asset class, coupled with the increasing demand for alternative cryptocurrency products. Although XRP ETFs are expected to face competition from Bitcoin ETFs, their potential approval could mark a pivotal moment in the development of the cryptocurrency investment landscape. The approval of XRP ETFs would signal further maturation of the digital asset space, providing more institutional investors with a regulated, transparent vehicle for gaining exposure to XRP. Kelvin Munene Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience in market analysis and expert commentary. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University and is known for meticulous research in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured in top publications including Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Coinedition, and Analytics Insight. Kelvin specializes in uncovering emerging crypto trends and delivering data-driven analyses to help readers make informed decisions. Outside of work, he enjoys chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures. Read More

TLDR ZachXBT claims Crypto.com hid a major security incident, fueling concerns over transparency in the platform. The alleged cover-up involves leadership and has raised questions about governance and accountability. Crypto.com’s lack of a clear response to allegations further erodes trust, especially after previous controversies. The crypto industry faces heightened scrutiny as incidents like these push for better regulatory standards. ZachXBT, a blockchain investigator, has alleged that Crypto.com concealed a major security incident, sparking widespread speculation and concern within the crypto community. The claims were made on social media, where ZachXBT hinted that the exchange had hidden the details of a significant breach involving leadership. His allegations have raised questions about Crypto.com’s transparency and governance, as the platform has yet to respond directly. In his statement, ZachXBT made it clear that he could not share the specifics of the incident, which he claims was distinct from other known issues involving ETH transfers or the backing of stablecoins. The lack of clarity from Crypto.com has only fueled further distrust among users and investors, especially as it has failed to provide an official explanation or response. Without official statements, speculation surrounding the incident continues to grow. Speculation and Mistrust Surround Crypto.com’s Silence The crypto community has reacted with a mix of skepticism and concern following ZachXBT’s accusations. Many believe that the exchange’s refusal to address the issue has only compounded the problem, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and distrust. The lack of transparency in addressing the alleged security breach stands in stark contrast to other exchanges like BtcTurk and MEXC, which have been more forthcoming with details during similar incidents. ZachXBT’s remarks follow the exchange’s previous struggles with transparency, especially regarding the reissuance of 70 billion CRO tokens that had been burned in 2021. Crypto.com defended this decision by citing changes in the political climate and the need for strategic investments. However, critics argue that such moves undermine the platform’s commitment to decentralization and transparency, core values that many in the crypto community hold dear. Crypto.com Response and Broader Market Scrutiny Despite the serious allegations, Crypto.com has not provided any detailed response to ZachXBT’s claims. A spokesperson from the exchange has yet to comment, and it remains unclear whether the company intends to address the allegations publicly. The silence from the platform’s leadership is becoming a cause for concern, particularly as the crypto industry continues to face regulatory scrutiny on multiple fronts. Industry observers argue that this lack of communication could further damage Crypto.com’s reputation and affect its standing in the market. As the company operates in a highly competitive space, where trust and security are paramount, failing to address these accusations transparently could result in a loss of confidence among users and investors. Kelvin Munene Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience in market analysis and expert commentary. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University and is known for meticulous research in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured in top publications including Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Coinedition, and Analytics Insight. Kelvin specializes in uncovering emerging crypto trends and delivering data-driven analyses to help readers make informed decisions. Outside of work, he enjoys chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures. Read More

TLDR Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital invests in Polymarket, marking a significant move in the prediction market space. Polymarket’s $112M acquisition of QCEX boosts its expansion into U.S. markets. Trump Jr. now advises both Polymarket and Kalshi, two major players in the prediction market sector. Polymarket plans to leverage its partnership with 1789 Capital to expand its influence and transparency. Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction platforms, has secured a significant investment from Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital. As part of this deal, Trump Jr. will join Polymarket’s advisory board, bringing his strategic insights to the growing prediction market sector. This move underscores the increasing interest in prediction markets as tools for financial innovation, especially in the wake of evolving regulatory landscapes. The investment follows Polymarket’s recent $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a licensed derivatives exchange. This acquisition will enable Polymarket to operate in the U.S. market more effectively, ensuring compliance with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket’s entry into the U.S. market is seen as a significant step, considering the regulatory barriers it faced in the past. Polymarket Growth and Expansion Plans Since its launch, Polymarket has experienced impressive growth. The platform has seen approximately $6 billion in predictions during the first half of 2025, showcasing the increasing demand for such services. The company’s acquisition of QCEX allows it to tap into regulated markets, providing a transparent and secure environment for users to participate in predictions. By leveraging the customer bases of its partners, including X as its official prediction market partner, Polymarket aims to solidify its position as a leader in the prediction market space. The addition of Trump Jr. to its advisory board adds further credibility, aligning the platform with high-profile figures in business and finance. Trump Jr.’s Dual Advisory Roles in Prediction Markets Trump Jr.’s investment and advisory role with Polymarket mark his second such involvement in the prediction market sector. He is also a strategic advisor to Kalshi, a fully regulated U.S.-based prediction market. With his involvement in both platforms, Trump Jr. has positioned himself as a key figure in the evolution of the prediction market industry. Kalshi and Polymarket are the two main players in the space, and Trump Jr.’s dual role in both organizations reflects the growing interest in these markets. Despite competition, both platforms are aiming to provide transparency and efficiency in prediction-based trading, using real-time data to inform their users. Regulatory Landscape and Future Prospects The regulatory environment for prediction markets in the U.S. has evolved, with the CFTC taking a more active role in overseeing such platforms. The agency has expressed interest in providing greater clarity on the legal framework for digital prediction markets, which is crucial for companies like Polymarket and Kalshi to thrive in the U.S. Polymarket’s partnership with 1789 Capital is part of a larger strategy to expand its influence and market share. The platform’s efforts to maintain transparency and provide users with real-time, accurate market data are central to its growth strategy. With Trump Jr.’s support, Polymarket aims to position itself as a trusted source for accurate market predictions, particularly as the regulatory landscape continues to shift. Kelvin Munene Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience in market analysis and expert commentary. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University and is known for meticulous research in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured in top publications including Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Coinedition, and Analytics Insight. Kelvin specializes in uncovering emerging crypto trends and delivering data-driven analyses to help readers make informed decisions. Outside of work, he enjoys chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures. Read More

TLDR Kanye West blames an Instagram hack for promoting a fake YZY token that briefly surged to $7 million. The real YZY token has dropped 81% since launch, despite claims of being legitimate. Critics question the credibility of celebrity-backed tokens as many suffer from volatility and manipulation. The meme coin craze continues, with many falling prey to scams and rapid price swings. Kanye West has blamed a recent Instagram hack for the promotion of a fraudulent YZY token, which briefly spiked to a $7 million market cap before crashing. The rapper’s official token, which launched shortly after, has seen an 81% drop from its peak, triggering skepticism about its viability and the overall credibility of celebrity-backed cryptocurrencies. On August 26, 2025, West took to X (formerly known as Twitter) to announce that his Instagram account had been compromised. He claimed the hack was used to promote an unauthorized YZY token, which surged rapidly in value, only to fall drastically the next day. West emphasized that the official YZY token, which he endorsed, was entirely separate from the imposter coin, which was promoted on his hacked Instagram account. Fake YZY Token and Its Brief Surge The fake YZY token, which was launched on the Pump.fun platform, saw rapid growth shortly after the Instagram hack. The coin briefly hit a $7 million market cap, fueled by the attention West’s account drew to it. However, the token’s value collapsed within hours, sinking to just a fraction of its peak value. This sudden surge and crash raised alarm among crypto observers, many of whom view celebrity-backed memecoins with skepticism due to their volatile nature. My Instagram has been hacked and it’s following a fake coin The official project is @YZY_MNY DrZ26cKJDksVRWib3DWsjo9 eeXccc7hKhDJviiYEEZY — ye (@kanyewest) August 26, 2025 Blockchain data indicated that the fake YZY token’s rise was largely driven by promotional activity on social media, including posts from influencers and the now-deleted accounts associated with the scam. Despite West’s claims, many in the community remain unconvinced, with some suggesting that the hack could have been orchestrated to create hype around the new token. Real Kanye West YZY Token’s Struggles Despite Kanye West efforts to clarify the situation, his official YZY token, launched on the Solana blockchain, has faced a turbulent start. The token initially spiked to a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of nearly $3 billion but quickly plummeted as the market cooled. As of the latest data, the token’s market cap has fallen to just $73 million, an 81% drop from its all-time high. This dramatic fall reflects the challenges faced by many celebrity-endorsed tokens, which often see initial hype followed by significant price corrections. West’s claims regarding the Instagram hack have done little to reassure investors, and many industry insiders have pointed out that celebrity-backed cryptocurrencies tend to lack the fundamental value that supports long-term growth. With the token’s value eroding rapidly, many investors are left questioning whether they were victims of another well-orchestrated scam. Crypto Memecoins: A Growing Trend or a Scam? The rise of celebrity-backed memecoins has become a recurring trend in the crypto space, with many tokens experiencing rapid surges in value followed by sharp crashes. These coins are often promoted through social media and endorsements from high-profile individuals like Kanye West, whose influence can drive large amounts of capital into these projects. However, the volatility of these coins, coupled with the lack of regulation and oversight, has led many to view them as speculative investments at best and outright scams at worst. Blockchain author David Gerard has previously stated that “all of this is like a big game of pretend with made-up financial instruments.” He argued that memecoins, in general, are essentially worthless and often serve as vehicles for insiders to profit at the expense of retail investors. Despite these concerns, the allure of quick gains continues to drive interest in these speculative assets. Kelvin Munene Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience in market analysis and expert commentary. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University and is known for meticulous research in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured in top publications including Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Coinedition, and Analytics Insight. Kelvin specializes in uncovering emerging crypto trends and delivering data-driven analyses to help readers make informed decisions. Outside of work, he enjoys chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures. Read More

TLDR Monex Group plans a yen-pegged stablecoin backed by Japanese government bonds for global payments. The stablecoin initiative aims to modernize financial transactions and enhance Monex’s digital finance presence. Monex will leverage Coincheck and Monex Securities to support the stablecoin’s launch. Japan’s regulatory changes are paving the way for more local stablecoin projects, including Monex’s initiative. Monex Group, a major Japanese financial services company, has unveiled plans to launch a yen-pegged stablecoin, backed by Japanese government bonds. The stablecoin is expected to play a pivotal role in enhancing global payments and expanding Monex’s presence in digital finance. Chairman Oki Matsumoto made the announcement during a recent interview with TV Tokyo, emphasizing the need for swift action to stay competitive in the evolving financial landscape. Matsumoto stated that the stablecoin would be pegged 1:1 to the yen, offering stability for cross-border payments and corporate transactions. This announcement comes at a time when stablecoin adoption is increasing globally, and Japan is moving towards a more favorable regulatory environment for such projects. Monex Group Stablecoin Initiative to Enhance Financial Transactions The yen-pegged stablecoin aims to provide a more efficient method for international remittances and business transactions. Unlike other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are less volatile because they are pegged to fiat currencies, making them a reliable medium for transferring value. The initiative is expected to simplify and reduce the cost of cross-border payments, which are often hindered by high fees and slow processing times. Monex plans to utilize its subsidiaries, Coincheck and Monex Securities, to support the stablecoin. Coincheck, one of Japan’s leading crypto exchanges, will play a key role in promoting the stablecoin’s use, while Monex Securities will provide the necessary infrastructure. Matsumoto emphasized that the company’s long-term strategy includes leveraging its existing customer bases to drive the stablecoin’s adoption. Regulatory Changes in Japan Pave the Way for Stablecoin Projects Monex’s stablecoin plans are in line with broader regulatory shifts in Japan, which is now preparing to approve domestic yen-pegged stablecoins. The country’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is expected to approve the issuance of these stablecoins as early as this fall, marking a significant milestone for Japan’s crypto ecosystem. Monex’s stablecoin could become one of the first such initiatives in Japan, as the country has recently softened its stance on foreign stablecoins. The changes in Japanese law come after the country lifted its ban on foreign stablecoins in 2023. With regulatory clarity on the horizon, Monex’s initiative is expected to contribute to Japan’s leadership in digital finance. Matsumoto sees stablecoins as a crucial development for the future of finance, emphasizing their potential to drive both domestic and international growth. Monex’s Global Expansion Plans Through Crypto Acquisitions In addition to launching a yen-pegged stablecoin, Monex is also pursuing an international expansion strategy. Matsumoto revealed that the company is in the process of acquiring a European cryptocurrency-related company. He hinted that an announcement would be made soon, with the goal of enhancing Monex’s global footprint. This acquisition is part of Monex’s broader strategy to strengthen its position in the global crypto market. Monex’s decision to list Coincheck on the Nasdaq last year has already provided the company with the resources to expand its reach. By acquiring a European crypto firm, Monex aims to bring its stablecoin project to a wider audience and build a stronger presence in Western markets. This two-pronged approach, combining the launch of a stablecoin with international acquisitions, is designed to position Monex as a leader in the digital finance space. Kelvin Munene Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience in market analysis and expert commentary. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University and is known for meticulous research in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured in top publications including Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Coinedition, and Analytics Insight. Kelvin specializes in uncovering emerging crypto trends and delivering data-driven analyses to help readers make informed decisions. Outside of work, he enjoys chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures. Read More

There are an estimated 1.43 million homebuyers in the U.S. housing market—the lowest level in records dating back to 2013 aside from the start of the pandemic. That’s making sellers skittish; the number of sellers has dipped by roughly 14,000 since May, falling for the first time in two years. Still, there are 36% more sellers than buyers—the largest gap in records dating back to 2013. That means buyers hold the cards in most markets, especially Texas and Florida. There are only five remaining seller’s markets. The good news? Mortgage rates have been falling recently, which could bring some buyers and sellers back to the market. The U.S. housing market has lost about 14,000 home sellers over the past two months, with the total number of sellers falling to 1.95 million in July from a peak of 1.96 million in May. This marks the first decline since July 2023, when the supply of homes for sale bottomed out near a historic low as rising mortgage rates made homeowners reluctant to sell.   Still, sellers outnumber buyers by the widest margin in records dating back to 2013; there were an estimated 1.43 million homebuyers in the housing market in July—the lowest level on record aside from the onset of the pandemic, when the housing market ground to a halt. The estimated number of sellers in the market is simply the number of active listings in the MLS. We estimated the number of buyers using proprietary Redfin data on the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to close of purchase, and MLS data on active listings and pending sales. If we know how long the typical buyer shops for (time from first tour to close), and we also know how many homes are on the market (active listings) and selling (pending sales), then we can infer the number of buyers in the market. These estimates, along with median-sale price data in this report, are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. See a more detailed methodology here, and scroll down in this report or visit the Redfin Data Center for data on the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. Up until recently, the number of sellers in the market was growing. That’s partly because the mortgage-rate lock-in effect was easing and partly because homes have been taking a long time to sell, causing stale listings to pile up. Redfin reported in May that the number of sellers in the market had hit a five-year high, and predicted that sellers would start to change their tune once they realized it was a buyer’s market. That is now happening. “Homebuyers are spooked by high home prices, high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, and now sellers are spooked because buyers are spooked,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “Some sellers are delisting their homes or choosing not to list at all after seeing other houses sit on the market for weeks or months, only to fetch less than the asking price.” Because sellers are pulling back, inventory is starting to tick down, which is likely why home prices are now heating up slightly. The median home sale price rose 1.4% year over year in July to $434,189—the highest July level on record. By comparison, prices rose 1.2% year over year in June and 1.1% year over year in May. This is notable because at the beginning of the year, home-price growth was shrinking. It’s the Most Buyer-Friendly Market in Years…If You Can Afford to Buy There are 36.3% more sellers in the market than buyers (or 518,801 more, to be exact)—the largest gap in records dating back to 2013. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market—at least nationally—and has been for the past 15 months. We define a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market.  “We’re likely in the most buyer-friendly housing market since the 2008 financial crisis,” Khan said. “Back then, inventory piled up as foreclosures surged, and demand was weak, meaning buyers had negotiating power. We’re not headed for another 2008, though; many of today’s homeowners have built substantial equity thanks to the recent surge in home values, and today’s borrowers must meet stricter lending standards. Plus, there are more options for avoiding foreclosure if a homeowner is at risk of defaulting, such as loan modification.”  Of course, it’s only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy. Many Americans have been priced out of the housing market altogether in recent years—mortgage rates are more than double their pandemic low, and home prices at a record high for this time of year. The good news is that mortgage rates have dropped in recent weeks, which could bring some buyers off of the sidelines. Miami and Fort Lauderdale Are the Strongest Buyer’s Markets, With Over Twice as Many Sellers as Buyers In Miami, there are an estimated 21,637 home sellers and 8,293 homebuyers. That means there are 160.9% more sellers than buyers—the largest imbalance among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. It’s followed by Fort Lauderdale, FL (151.2% more sellers than buyers), Austin, TX (123.8%), West Palm Beach, FL (123.4%) and San Antonio (113.1%). Overall, 35 of the 50 most populous metros are buyer’s markets, 10 are balanced markets and five are seller’s markets. The buyer’s markets are concentrated in the Sun Belt and on the West Coast, while balanced markets and seller’s markets skew more toward the Midwest and East Coast.  “It’s a true buyer’s market in San Antonio. Buyers are patient, selective, value conscious, and aware of their increased negotiating power. When they make offers, they ask for the moon,” said local Redfin Premier real estate agent Jesse Landin. “Sellers are struggling to adapt—their expectations are anchored to 2021, when homes were flying off the market for thousands of dollars over

Redfin publishes estimates on the number of homebuyers and sellers active in the U.S. housing market via reports on our news site and a dashboard on our data center. This post details the methodology behind our analysis. The estimated number of sellers in the market is simply the number of active listings in the MLS. While there is not a similar metric for the number of buyers in the market, we are able to infer the number of active buyers because we know: How many sellers there are, based on MLS data The probability a seller matches with a buyer each month, based on MLS data The probability a buyer matches with a seller each month, based on proprietary Redfin data on buyer search time Because we know how long the median buyer takes to find a home, we can estimate the probability the typical buyer will find a match each month using our matching model described below.  While this analysis incorporates Redfin data on buyer search time, it estimates the number of buyers and sellers in the market as a whole—not the number using Redfin as their brokerage or real estate platform.  Model We adopt a standard matching model used in the economics literature on buyer and seller dynamics in housing, including Genesove and Han (2012), Anenberg and Ringo (2024), and Piazzesi et al. (2020). Our unique contribution to this work is leveraging Redfin’s proprietary data, which allows us to estimate the number of buyers at a much higher frequency and with estimates tailored to each region. We adopt a Cobb-Douglas matching function with constant returns to scale. This is a standard modeling approach in economic models of matching markets and has been found to be a strong empirical fit to the housing market. (Badarinza et al., 2024). In this model, the number of successful matches that occur each month is a function of the number of active buyers and the number of active sellers.  The constant returns to scale assumption implies that a doubling of buyers and sellers would lead to a doubling of total sales. A consequence of this assumption is that the probability of a buyer or seller successfully matching with a counterparty depends only on the ratio of buyers and sellers. In other words, the rate at which sellers find buyers is equal to the rate at which buyers find sellers times the ratio of buyers and sellers, or: We treat these rates as hazards, or the probability that a buyer or seller finds a successful match within a given interval of time. Rearranging, the number of buyers is equal to the ratio of the seller hazard and the buyer hazard multiplied by the number of sellers: Estimation To estimate the number of buyers based on the final equation above, we need to identify three items: The seller hazard rate, or the probability a seller is matched to a buyer in a month. The buyer hazard rate, or the probability a buyer is matched to a seller in a month. The total number of sellers (active listings in the MLS). The seller hazard rate is estimated as the share of active sellers whose homes go pending each month, or pending sales divided by active listings, based on MLS data. The buyer hazard rate is estimated using a region-specific 12-month smoothed measure of the median time from first tour to closing, using Redfin’s proprietary customer tour data. Assuming an exponential survival model, the buyer hazard rate is equal to the natural log of 2 divided by the median time from first tour to close. We use the time from first tour to close as this corresponds with the period of most active search for buyers, in which buyer activity is likely to affect the probability of other buyers and sellers finding matches.  Finally, the total number of buyers is equal to the ratio of the seller hazard and the buyer hazard multiplied by the number of sellers. Market tightness, or the ratio of buyers and sellers, is a common metric used in academic literature to assess the balance of bargaining power between buyers and sellers. (See, for example, Carrillo et al., 2015). We therefore define a market where sellers far outnumber buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where buyers far outnumber sellers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is small is considered a balanced market.  Intuition The matching model is based on a simple intuition about the housing market: that the amount of time it takes each side to find a match depends on how “tight” the market is. The tighter the market (more buyers per seller), the easier it is for sellers to find a match—but the harder it is for buyers to find a match. Which means that if the number of sellers in the market goes up while the number of buyers stays the same, we should expect to see an increase in sales and: A decrease in the amount of time it takes the typical buyer to find a home An increase in the amount of time it takes the typical seller to sell their home Similarly, if the number of buyers on the market goes up, while the number of sellers stays the same, we should expect to see an increase in sales and An increase in the amount of time it takes the typical buyer to find a home A decrease in the amount of time it takes the typical seller to sell their home Our model allows us to use information on the amount of time buyers and sellers spend in the market—expressed as a probability of finding a match within a period—along with sales to back out the number of buyers and sellers. Coffee-Shop Analogy We can use a simple analogy to demonstrate the logic. Suppose you are standing outside a coffee shop and would like to know how many customers, or “buyers,” are currently inside.  With only two bits of information,

Australian Dollar declines despite stronger Monthly CPI data. Traders remain cautious after President Trump warned of a 200% tariff on Chinese goods. Trump has indicated that White House economist Stephen Miran could be considered for Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s seat. The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles following the release of the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. The AUD/USD pair receives downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its recent losses from the previous session. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Monthly Consumer Price Index jumped by 2.8% year-over-year in July, following a 1.9% increase reported in June. The market consensus was for 2.3% growth in the reported period. Meanwhile, the Australian Construction Work Done improved to 3% in the second quarter, against the 0.8% expected. Traders remain cautious following US President Donald Trump’s warning of imposing a 200% tariff on Chinese goods if Beijing refuses to supply magnets to the United States (US), per Reuters. It is worth noting that any change in the Chinese economy could influence AUD as China and Australia are close trading partners. Australian Dollar steadies as US Dollar recovers recent losses The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is retracing its recent losses and trading around 98.30 at the time of writing. Focus is shifted toward the upcoming release of the Q2 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized and July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. US President Donald Trump announced early Tuesday that he was removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position on the Fed’s board of directors. This is considered the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the Fed’s 111-year history. Trump has already nominated White House economist Stephen Miran to a temporary seat that expires in January and has suggested Miran could also be in the running for Cook’s position. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that David Malpass, former World Bank president, is another potential candidate. President Trump threatened “subsequent additional tariffs” and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation for digital services taxes that hit American technology companies, per Bloomberg. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday that risks to the job market were rising, but also noted inflation remained a threat and that a decision wasn’t set in stone. Powell also stated that the Fed still believes it may not need to tighten policy solely based on uncertain estimates that employment may be beyond its maximum sustainable level. The US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235K for the previous week, an eight-week high and above the consensus estimate of 225K, suggesting some softening in labor market conditions. The preliminary S&P Global US Composite PMI picked up pace in August, with the index at 55.4 against 55.1 prior. Meanwhile, the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 from 49.8 prior, surpassing the market consensus of 49.5. Services PMI eased to 55.4 from 55.7 in the previous reading, but was stronger than the 54.2 expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes of its August monetary policy meeting suggested that board members agreed that some further reduction in the cash rate is likely to be needed in the coming year. RBA Meeting Minutes also indicated that policymakers consider the pace of rate cuts would be determined by incoming data and the balance of global risks. The board saw arguments for both a gradual pace of easing and for a faster pace, while the labor market remained a little tight, inflation was still above the midpoint, and domestic demand was recovering. Australian Dollar tests confluence resistance zone around 0.6500 The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6500 on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is positioned slightly above the descending channel pattern, suggesting an emergence of a bullish bias. Additionally, the pair is trading above the nine-day EMA, indicating short-term price momentum is strengthening. On the upside, a successful breach above the psychological level of 0.6500 could support the AUD/JPY pair to explore the region around the monthly high at 0.6568, reached on August 14. Further advances could prompt the pair to test the nine-month high of 0.6625, which was recorded on July 24. The immediate support is appearing at the 50-day EMA of 0.6494, followed by the nine-day EMA of 0.6482. A break below these levels would weaken the medium- and short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to return to the descending channel and target the two-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21. Further declines would find support near the three-month low of 0.6372, reached on June 23, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.16% 0.18% 0.35% 0.02% 0.07% 0.24% 0.10% EUR -0.16% 0.01% 0.14% -0.19% -0.16% 0.03% -0.11% GBP -0.18% -0.01% 0.16% -0.15% -0.07% 0.06% -0.07% JPY -0.35% -0.14% -0.16% -0.29% -0.30% -0.12% -0.18% CAD -0.02% 0.19% 0.15% 0.29% 0.05% 0.23% 0.08% AUD -0.07% 0.16% 0.07% 0.30% -0.05% 0.19% 0.05% NZD -0.24% -0.03% -0.06% 0.12% -0.23% -0.19% -0.13% CHF -0.10% 0.11% 0.07% 0.18% -0.08% -0.05% 0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). RBA FAQs The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as

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Gold price attracts some sellers in Wednesday’s early European session.  Worries over the Fed’s independence might support the Gold price. Traders await the US July PCE inflation report later on Friday for fresh impetus.  The Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The precious metal retreats from a two-week high of $3,395 amid the profit-taking and modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD). The potential downside for the yellow metal might be capped amid concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence as US President Donald Trump doubled down on his efforts to oust a Fed governor. This could boost the Gold price as it is considered a traditional safe-haven asset.  Traders will keep an eye on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Any signs of escalating tensions might lift the Gold price, while a peace deal could undermine the precious metal in the near term. Gold traders brace for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for July later on Friday. The headline PCE is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in July, while the core PCE is projected to show a rise of 2.9% YoY during the same report period. The hotter-than-expected inflation could limit the Fed’s ability to lower rates. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price edges lower despite concerns about the future of Fed independence Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he will soon have a “majority” of his own nominees on the Fed board of governors who will back his desire to cut the interest rates.  In response, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Trump has no authority to fire her from the central bank, and she will not resign.  Trump said he was ready for a legal fight with Cook after he moved to oust her from her post following allegations that she falsified mortgage documents, per Bloomberg. “Overnight you had the news that Trump fired one of the Fed governors accused of mortgage fraud. It gave a little life to gold because the Fed’s kind of been the driver in gold right now,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled a possible interest rate cut at the US central bank’s meeting in September, saying that risks to the job market were rising. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 85% chance for a cut of at least a quarter-point at the Fed’s September meetin g, up from 75% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold clings to a bullish stance in the longer term despite profit-taking The Gold price edges lower on the day. Technically, the constructive outlook of the precious metal remains in play, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The path of least resistance is to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 56.80. This indicates bullish momentum in the near term. The crucial resistance level for Gold emerges in the $3,400-3,410 zone, representing the psychological level, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band, and the high of August 8. A run of green candles and steady trading above the mentioned level could open the door for a move toward $3,439, the high of July 23. The additional upside filter to watch is $3,500, the round figure, and the high of April 22.  On the flip side, if the XAU/USD continues to draw in sellers and more red candlesticks show up, the price could head right back to $3,325, the low of August 21. Sustained trading below this level could expose $3,200, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and round mark. Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these