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USD/JPY falls slightly to near 147.50 amid caution ahead of FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the September meeting. Economists expect Japan’s National CPI ex. Fresh Food to have grown moderately by 3% in July. The USD/JPY pair ticks down to near 147.50 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously, with investors awaiting Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium, which is scheduled for Friday. Financial market participants will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech to get fresh cues about the likely monetary policy action by the United States (US) central bank for the remainder of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates in the September meeting are almost 85%. Fed dovish bets intensified after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July signaled weak labor demand in the April-June period, which was anticipated previously. In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Ahead of FOMC minutes, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to the weekly high around 98.00. In Japan, investors await the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be published on Friday. Economists expect the National CPI excluding Fresh Food to have grown at a slower pace of 3%, compared to 3.3% in June. Signs of cooling inflationary pressures would dampen market speculation supporting interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. Read More

The New Zealand Dollar dropped beyond 1% after a dovish cut by the RBNZ. The bank cut rates by 25 bps, with two policymakers voting for a 50 bps cut. The US Dollar remains firm with all eyes on the Fed. The New Zealand Dollar is the worst performer of the G8 currencies so far on Wednesday. The pair has lost more than 1% against the US Dollar, following a “dovish cut” by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand earlier today, which sent the pair to four-month lows at 0.5815. New Zealand’s central bank trimmed its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3%, as widely expected, but the bank statement revealed that two policymakers voted for a half-point rate cut, which sent the Kiwi tumbling across the board. The RBNZ hints at further rate cuts The bank observed that economic growth had stalled over the previous months, with rising prices hampering consumer spending and the labour market softening in a context of global uncertainty. Governor Hawkesby remained confident that the fiscal outlook and the declining government spending would contribute to keeping inflationary pressures in check, which points to further monetary easing down the road. The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains firm, favoured by a sour market sentiment with all eyes on the Fed. The release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting is expected to shed some light on the division among policymakers, although the highlight of the week will be Fed Chairman Powell’s conference on Friday. Investors will be eager to know whether recent macroeconomic figures, and especially the Nonfarm Payrolls shock in the first week of the month, have moved the Fed chief to consider rate cuts, even with the risk of tariffs looming. Powell´s comments are expected to set the US Dollar’s near-term direction. RBNZ FAQs The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says. In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. Read More

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. Editors’ Picks EUR/USD clings to daily gains near 1.1670 ahead of FOMC Minutes EUR/USD keeps its slightly bid bias on Wednesday, hovering around the 1.1670-1.1680 region amid decent losses in the Greenback. Meanwhile, investors continue to digest another attack by President Trump to the Federal Reserve, this time directed to Governor Lisa Cook, all ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes. GBP/USD looks fragile near 1.3460 GBP/USD remains on the back foot, unable to gather fresh upside impulse despite earlier hotter-than-expected UK inflation data seem to have kicked back expectations of further easing by the BoE, and renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Gold hits daily highs around $3,350 Gold now picks up pace and reaches the $3,350 zone per troy ounce, or two-day highs, on the back of the downside bias in the Greenback and the widespread move lower in US yields ahead of the FOMC Minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium. Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you’re a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market. Read More

Gold is trimming losses after a two-day reversal, but the broader trend remains negative. Risk aversion after Wall Street’s sell-off and lower geopolitical optimism is supporting the precious metal’s recovery. XAU/USD approaches the top of a descending wedge pattern, at $3,335. Gold  (XAU/USD) is trimming some losses on Wednesday, drawing support from the sour market sentiment. The precious metal has bounced from two-week lows right above $3,300, but remains capped below previous support at the $3,330 area, which leaves the broader bearish trend intact. Bullion is drawing support from the sourer market sentiment, with equity markets in red after a sell-off in Wall Street on Tuesday, while investors cool their expectations of an immediate peace deal in Ukraine after the Kremlin played down direct talks between Russian President Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Technical analysis: Bulls need to break the wedge top at $3,335 The 4-hour chart shows the XAU/USD pair trading within a descending wedge. This is often a continuation figure, which points to a positive outcome. Bulls, however, are likely to meet significant resistance at the $3,325-$3,335 area where the lows of August 12, 14 and 18 meet the descending trendline from the August 8 peak. Above that level, the next upside targets would be Tuesday’s high, at $3,345, ahead of the  August 18 high of $3,360 and the August 18 high, at  $3,375. To the downside, immediate support is at the $3,305-$3,315 area, Tuesday’s low and August 31 high, where the wedge´s bottom will also meet the price. Further down, the next target would be the August 1 low, near $3,280. Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. Read More

Change management by Michaela J. Kerrissey and Julia DiBenigno August 20, 2025 Illustration by Tim Boleaars Post Summary.    Leer en españolLer em português Post Traditional change management advice emphasizes gradual tactics like pursuing “small wins,” building coalitions, and pitching pilots that require minimal investment. In stable times, these approaches have been shown to build momentum and buy-in from stakeholders and employees alike, softening the rigid status quo. Post Read more on Change management or related topics Managing uncertainty, Innovation, Persuasion and Psychology Read More

Sharon Melnick Sharon Melnick, PhD, is an executive psychologist who has been named one of the Top 50 executive coaches by Thinkers50, and specializes in helping high-contribution executives achieve greater impact with less stress. She’s the author of In Your Power: React Less, Regain Control, Raise Others (Wiley, 2023) and Success under Stress (AMA, 2013). Find her on LinkedIn or receive her Burnout-Proof Leadership Checklist at www.sharonmelnick.com/burnoutproof. Read More

Psychology and neuroscience by Toby Lester August 20, 2025 Illustration by Ryan Todd Post Summary.    Leer en españolLer em português Post We expect more than ever from leaders today—including that they be strongly empathetic. But that hasn’t always been the case. Until recently, in fact, many people considered empathy in a leader to be a weakness rather than a strength. Leaders weren’t supposed to exude emotional understanding. They were supposed to be tough. Post Read more on Psychology and neuroscience or related topics Leadership styles, Organizational culture, AI and machine learning, Generative AI, Health and wellness, Wellness, Employee retention, Burnout, Managing employees and Motivating people Read More

August 20, 2025 Changing jobs is hard. Changing sectors is daunting. You’ve built a network, a reputation, skills, expertise, a firm grasp of how that industry operates. Maybe you even got a related degree or two! And to just leave all that behind…except that, you really are stuck or unfulfilled or simply underpaid. When it comes to shifting your career, the stakes are high, but so is your potential to succeed. Executive coach Nina Bowman regularly guides people through the process, with all of its uncertainty, time commitment, strategizing, and storytelling. Amy Bernstein speaks with her about making a bold mid-career leap, including how to identify a new path, build connections to land interviews, and tell the story of how you’ll find success in a completely different role. Then, two listeners who made bold leaps themselves—one from academia to tech, the other from government to consulting—share their experiences and insights. Key episode topics include: career transitions, career planning, professional networks Listen to the original Women at Work episode: “How to Leap Mid-Career from One Industry to Another” Find more episodes of Women at Work Discover 100 years of Harvard Business Review articles, case studies, podcasts, and more at hbr.org Read More

Difficult conversations by Melody Wilding August 19, 2025 David Malan/Getty Images Post Buy Copies Summary.    Leer en españolLer em português Post Buy Copies You’ve just announced a change that you know is right for the organization. But you also know this direction will make some team members unhappy. And sure enough, soon you notice passive-aggressive comments from certain colleagues. Post Buy Copies Read more on Difficult conversations or related topics Strategy execution, Leadership and managing people, Interpersonal skills, Interpersonal communication, Leadership, Managing people, Managing employees and Management Read More

Hedge funds’ growing bond holdings have cast traders in the unlikely — and uneasy — role of fiscal watchdogs. Suggested Reading Their exposure to both short and long U.S. Treasuries reached a record-breaking $3.8 trillion in March, more than doubling since 2022, according to the Office of Financial Research (OFR), accounting for approximately 13% of the total market. Related Content The Treasury market is the bedrock of the global financial system and underpins every other financial market. Regulators and central banks are sounding the alarm that hedge funds taking highly-leveraged positions can disrupt its functioning. Yet, with a newfound ability to save or sink bond markets, intentional or not, hedge funds have also gained political sway. Recent instances of rapid deleveraging have worsened financial shocks, but it’s precisely this chaos that has forced leaders to backtrack on risky policies. “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now, I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody,” Bill Clinton’s chief strategist James Carville said in 1993, regarding Wall Street’s response to the then-president’s economic policies. So, are hedge funds Wall Street’s latest bond vigilantes, or dangerous market destabilizers? How hedge funds got drunk on Treasuries Key to understanding hedge funds’ burgeoning political influence is understanding why they’ve poured into bond markets to begin with. The Federal Reserve rapidly began hiking interest rates in 2022, climbing from near-zero to 5.5% in less than a year — the highest level in more than two decades. Surging borrowing costs caused large swings in Treasury prices. Those swings widened the “basis” gap between Treasuries in the cash market (the actual bond) and the futures contract on that bond. In theory, the two prices should track closely, because a futures contract is simply a promise to deliver the bond later. Big rate swings widen the basis gap because investors use Treasury futures to hedge or speculate. That surging demand can push futures prices out of line with cash bonds. Hedge funds arbitrage this tiny difference, known as basis trading. They use repo markets to borrow enormous amounts of money to buy “cheaper” bonds, while selling more “expensive” futures contracts, thus transforming small profits into large ones. The top 10 hedge funds account for 40% of total repo borrowing and have leverage ratios of 18-to-1, according to OFR data as of March 2024. Prices eventually converge once the futures contract nears expiration, at which point the hedge fund pockets the difference. The larger the gap, the larger the locked-in profit.  Basis trades can “enhance U.S. Treasury market functioning by increasing liquidity and price discovery while lowering the cost of government borrowing,” Beth M. Hammack, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said in February. “These trades provide liquidity in calm times, but disrupt it in tumultuous times,” Richard Berner, a finance professor at NYU and the first director of the OFR, told the Financial Times in April. ‘You can intimidate everybody’ The chaos that’s ensued from the rapid unravelling of these trades have forced political leaders to U-turn on highly controversial economic policies. When President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports on April 2, the bond market did not take to the economic uncertainty well. The price of 10-year Treasuries fell by 8% in one week. “Hedge fund deleveraging likely amplified the move,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in April.  Within days of their debut, Trump abruptly announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, acknowledging that the bond market was “getting a little queasy.” Similar episodes of bond-market vigilantism have occurred in the U.K. gilt (government bond) market, where hedge funds account for around 60% of trading volumes. The most notable case was that of former Prime Minister Liz Truss. In 2022, after Truss unveiled sweeping unfunded tax cuts and large spending promises, investors concluded this would mean a sharp rise in government borrowing at a time of already-high inflation. Investors dumped gilts, with 10-year yields jumping more than one percentage point within days. Less than a week later, the Bank of England announced emergency gilt purchases to stabilize the market, warning: “Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to U.K. financial stability.” Just weeks after that intervention, Truss resigned — having served only 49 days as prime minister. Gilt markets sprang into action again last month, following a fraught moment in Parliament. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves appeared to cry behind Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who hesitated to fully back her. The 10-year gilt yield immediately jumped by 22 basis points — the biggest one-day surge since the Truss turmoil — as investors feared the fiscally disciplined Reeves was on the cusp of losing her role overseeing the government’s finances. Within a day, Starmer publicly reaffirmed his support for Reeves, declaring she “will be chancellor for a very long time to come,” after which gilt yields reversed. “The bond market has rescued Rachel Reeves from Keir Starmer,” wrote The Newstatesman’s Will Dunn later that day.  Making the bad times worse Describing how he felt watching hedge funds unwind their trades in response to Trump’s tariffs, Bill Campbell, portfolio manager at asset manager DoubleLine, told Reuters: “You started to get the warning signs that there was potentially stress building up in the system, and had it continued, then you start to run the risk that bigger things would happen.” The outbreak of Covid-19 gave a glimpse into just how quickly “bigger things” could transpire — a lesson that haunts regulators. In the three years prior to 2022, hedge funds had almost doubled their Treasury exposure, aligning with a 1.75% rate hike. When the pandemic hit, panicked global investors wanted cash, fast. Instead of buying up safe-haven Treasuries, investors sold them to raise liquidity. At the same time, demand for Treasury futures grew stronger, driving up their price even further. The