Will tariffs derail China’s rebound?
However, US tariffs on key Southeast Asian countries have raised concerns about China’s economic outlook. Vietnam agreed to a 20% tariff and a 40% levy on transshipments bound for the US, potentially targeting Chinese exporters bypassing US tariffs. China’s exports to Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, jumped 16.8% YoY in June, while exports to the US tumbled 16.1%.
A slump in exports to the US via Southeast Asian countries could impact total Chinese exports, the labor market, and domestic consumption.
Natixis Asia Pacific Chief Economist Alicia Garcia Herrero remarked:
“Export growth might slow to 2-3% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, and perhaps just 1% in the last quarter. Shipments of low value goods, which can easily be manufactured elsewhere—such as furniture, clothes, shoes, and toys—to be most affected. Bicycles originally intended for export to America are already on sale at low prices on Chinese e-commerce sites.”
While China’s economic outlook has dimmed, Beijing appears optimistic, reinforced by the PBoC’s decision to keep the LPRs steady. Garcia Herrero commented:
“Recent comments by top Chinese economic officials suggest they realize something needs to be done. How much is action versus words, I don’t know. But I do think it’s a big problem for China.”
A US-China trade deal with lower tariffs and removal of any remaining export restrictions may further delay policy action from Beijing. Nevertheless, Beijing’s recent pledges have highlighted a willingness to roll out fresh policy measures should economic momentum fade.
On July 18, Beijing pledged further support, reportedly stating:
“Will introduce policies to further stimulate consumption, boost services consumption.”
Hang Seng Index Hits 25,000 on Economic Momentum and Stimulus Hopes
Positive sentiment toward China’s economy, Beijing’s stimulus pledges, and easing US-China tensions have lifted demand for Hong Kong and Mainland China-listed stocks. The Hang Seng Index has risen 4% in July to date, eyeing a 3-month winning streak. Significantly, the Index broke above 25,000 for the first time since February 2022.
Meanwhile, Mainland China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have gained 4.18% and 3.61% in July to date. NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices’ plans to resume chip exports to China boosted demand for tech stocks. The Hang Seng TECH Index and Roundhill China Dragons ETF are up 5.4% and 2.95%, respectively, July to date. The Nasdaq Composite Index is up 2.97% in the month, with NVDIA and AMD soaring 8.48% and 10.64%, respectively, over the same period.