It’s the last hour of work, and you’re looking for something to do. You’ve clicked this article because you have at least Bo Nix and J.K. Dobbins of the Denver Broncos on your fantasy football teams. Thanks for the click. It’s time to pick up (and start) Troy Franklin. Then come back to this article to see why. In my business, we call that a tease. First, let’s get to Nix and Dobbins.
Bo Nix vs. Houston’s Defense
Conventional wisdom says no. The Texans allow the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. But football is about individual matchups, so don’t feel bad starting Nix in fantasy football this week. In other words, the Broncos specifically match up well against the Texans. Here’s a fun fact: through eight weeks, the Broncos have recorded 35-plus sacks on defense and have allowed fewer than 10 sacks on offense.
Case and point: an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The Texans are sixth in pass rush win rate, while the Broncos are first in pass block win rate. I like the Broncos’ offensive line to neutralize the Texans’ pass rush. Nix has three three-plus touchdown games in his last five starts. Fantasy football’s QB5 to date, don’t bench Nix now.
Through air or land, Nix will find a way. He’s added 20-plus rushing yards in three of his past five as well. Nix is No. 14 in our QB rankings this week, but he’ll likely exceed expectations.
R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins Split
Dobbins paced Harvey in touches in Week 8, 17-8. Even with a hat trick last week, the latter is no immediate threat to the former’s touches. Dobbins is third in the league in rushing yards and rushing yards per game. Don’t be deterred by the matchup (see graph above). Yes, the Texans allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. But you’re not sitting an RB with 20-touch potential on Dobbins’ efficiency (5.3 yards per carry). He’s a solid RB2 this week.
Nix’s Supporting Cast
Yes. Sutton is No. 10 in the league in receiving yards. Temper expectations, though. Sutton lines up across Derek Stingley Jr. this week. So, he’s a low-end WR2, ranked as WR21. That said, Sutton’s role this week is essential, as it indirectly sets the stage for fellow WR Franklin to have a big game.
The Broncos’ offensive line will mitigate the pass rush. Nix is going to scan right, top to bottom, and see Sutton covered but Franklin open in the slot. Start Franklin. He is WR46. Franklin is going to exceed expectations this week. He’s coming off of a six-reception, 89-yard game with two touchdowns on eight targets.
Sutton: 56 targets, 37 receptions, 536 yards (67 yards per game), and three touchdowns
Franklin: 54 targets, 33 receptions, 358 yards (44.8 yards per game), and four touchdowns