A few unexpected backfield shifts could shape this week’s fantasy football outcomes. Some veterans are holding onto starting roles longer than expected, while a few rookies are quietly taking over. Matchups against soft run defenses make certain players more appealing than usual.
These decisions could be the difference between making the playoffs and watching from the sidelines.
Start ‘Em: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (vs. BUF)
Did you think this would be TreVeyon Henderson? No, no, no. Mike Vrabel is back to his old tricks, pushing the plodding veteran over the vastly superior and more explosive rookie. As fantasy managers, we have no choice but to play the cards as they are, not how we want them to be.
After being eased in for one week, Rhamondre Stevenson was right back in the lead role before the Patriots’ Week 14 bye. He played 58% of the snaps and saw 15 opportunities, the exact same as Henderson.
While this backfield is more of a split than it was the first time these teams played, that was Stevenson’s best game of the season. The veteran back totaled 142 yards on 16 touches, posting 21.2 fantasy points.
The Bills are a run funnel defense. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Of course, that will benefit Henderson as well. He is very much worthy of being in lineups. But don’t expect the Patriots to score all of their touchdowns through the air. At the goal line, it is going to be Stevenson and I expect him to score for the first time since Week 7 this week, which will be enough to give him solid RB2 numbers.
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans (vs. ARI)
After Nick Chubb left last week’s game with a rib injury, it was all Woody Marks. Fantasy managers got an extremely raw deal with the rookie came out for literally one play, giving Dare Ogunbowale the chance to punch in a short touchdown. That should’ve been Marks’ score.
How the Texans utilized their running backs on Sunday night is very telling, though. Even if Chubb plays, he is nothing more than a guy who gives Marks a breather. This is no longer a timeshare, as the thoroughly finished Chubb offers absolutely nothing but a warm body.
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Marks is the lead back and the Texans are prepared to fully lean on him. If Chubb doesn’t play, we may be looking at Chase Brown without Samaje Perine levels of usage for Marks.
The Arizona Cardinals allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They just surrendered 212 yards on the ground to Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Fire up Marks as a potential RB1 this week.
Chris Rodriguez, RB, Washington Commanders (vs. NYG)
Chris Rodriguez is the clear lead back for the Commanders. How much does that matter? It depends on the matchup.
Given that Rodriguez offers nothing in the passing game, he is purely touchdown or bust. If he doesn’t score, you’re not getting 10+ fantasy points. Last week, C-Rod didn’t score. However, he did rush for a very respectable 52 yards on 10 carries. Unfortunately, the Commanders fell behind by a lot very early and really never had the ball.
Things should be different this week at home against the Giants, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
When these teams met in Week 1, Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 82 yards and a touchdown. Austin Ekeler (remember him?) had 26 yards on six carries. Even Jeremy McNichols got in on the fun with four attempts for 25 yards.
JCM has been relegated to third string. He only even saw the field last week because the score was 31-0 in the fourth quarter.
This game should be more competitive, but game script should not get away from the Commanders, regardless of whether it’s Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Rodriguez is a good bet to find the end zone.
Sit ‘Em: David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions (at LAR)
The Lions’ backfield may feature the same players as last year, but it is nowhere near the same thing. This is not a timeshare. Jahmyr Gibbs has fully relegated David Montgomery to backup duties, and rightfully so.
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That’s not to say Montgomery isn’t still a useful player. We saw it last week when he ripped off an impressive 35-yard touchdown that included multiple broken tackles. But he’s not Gibbs and everyone knows it.
As a result, Montgomery’s fantasy value is entirely reliant on either him scoring or the Lions having extreme positive game script so they can give him sympathy carries in the fourth quarter.
Detroit has been in four straight highly competitive games. Montgomery hasn’t topped eight carries in any of them. This week should be another competitive contest. And if it’s not, it’s probably because the Lions get blown out, not the other way around.
Gibbs should be just fine because he is so dynamic and heavily involved as a receiver. Just don’t expect 30+ points. But Montgomery is going to have a tough time against a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.