Fantasy football playoffs are here, and lineup decisions have never mattered more. A few wide receivers are trending in opposite directions, and this week’s matchups could be the breaking point. Some players are stepping into bigger roles at just the right time, while others face situations that make them hard to trust.
Here’s who deserves a spot in your lineup — and who’s better left on the bench.
Start ‘Em: Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. ATL)
It’s now been three games since Chris Godwin returned, and his involvement has increased every week. Against the Saints, Godwin caught five of eight targets for 55 yards. Most importantly, he looks like himself.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers absolutely have to have this game if they want to win the NFC South. Emeka Egbuka has played truly horrific football for the better part of two months now. It’s time to accept that he may just have had a good run-out to start the season.
Even if Mike Evans returns on Thursday night, he won’t see a full complement of snaps given the lengthy layoff. Godwin has become Baker Mayfield’s safety blanket, and that should remain so.
Falcons-Bucs games are historically high-scoring. But even if Kirk Cousins can’t hold up his end of the bargain anymore, Godwin should be able to get there against a defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings (at DAL)
Last week, I saw the Vikings’ offensive explosion coming. That’s why I recommended Justin Jefferson as a start: right church, wrong pew.
It’s abundantly clear by now that Jefferson is not a featured part of this offense. We don’t have to understand it or agree with it. We have to accept it.
Jefferson has not scored above 11.1 fantasy points in five consecutive games. In four of those games, he was below 9.0 fantasy points. Jefferson has a total of four receptions for 15 yards over his last two combined.
The matchup against the Cowboys is as good as it gets. But Jefferson showed no ability to exploit a similarly favorable matchup last week against the Commanders. So, we turn to Jordan Addison.
The Vikings WR2 (now apparently the WR1) caught four passes for 62 yards. He was the leading receiver. Addison’s production dwarfs Jefferson’s over the past two games. Now, he gets to exploit a defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Dallas will very likely bounce back after losing to the Lions last Thursday. That means a negative game script for the Vikings and more pass attempts for JJ McCarthy. Those passes have to go somewhere, and we know they’re not going to Jefferson. Thus, Addison is the imaginative play this week.
Sit ‘Em: Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (at SEA)
Alec Pierce did well to pull off a 5-80 line in a non-competitive contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. He continues to exceed expectations and has now crested 13.0 fantasy points in four of his last five and five of his previous seven. Unfortunately, things are about to take a turn.
I cannot envision a worse rollout for Riley Leonard’s first career start than to go into Seattle. We already saw what this looks like when Max Brosmer had to face this defense in what should definitely be the only start of his career.
Leonard didn’t look terrible filling in for an injured Daniel Jones, but the Seahawks defense is a different animal. The Colts are going to struggle to get first downs.
Seattle allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Colts will undoubtedly try to lean on Jonathan Taylor. When it doesn’t work, and they are forced to throw, the one vulnerability the Seahawks actually have is the tight end. That makes this very likely to be a Tyler Warren day through the air. Pierce and the rest of the Colts WRs can be left on the bench.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills (at NE)
It’s wild how the unquestioned best quarterback in fantasy football doesn’t have a single reliable pass-catcher. Even Dalton Kincaid isn’t on the field enough to be a consistent weekly starter regardless of matchup.
At wide receiver, Josh Allen is fine throwing to whoever happens to be the guy he finds on a particular play. Perhaps Khalil Shakir is technically the No. 1, but what does that even mean?
Shakir only played half the snaps last week and ran fewer routes than Gabe Davis and James Cook. If not for a very fortunate touchdown on a broken play, it would’ve been another game of sub-3.0 fantasy points for Shakir.
It is worth noting that Shakir did see nine targets against the Patriots the first time around. He had a respectable five catches for 45 yards. But this Bills’ offense is different now. They want to run the ball and will try and do so even against a Patriots pass funnel. When they throw, recent trends suggest it’s not to Shakir. He is impossible to trust in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.