It’s off to the Motor City Sunday for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are riding high and brimming with confidence on their two-game winning streak. The Steelers have seemingly turned things around late in the year, are playing much better on offense thanks to better communication, and are rounding into form defensively as players and coaches are on the same page now.
But injuries aren’t going away, and Pittsburgh might be even more short-handed this week with the likes of T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig and even James Pierre trending towards not playing on defense, while Isaac Seumalo might be on the shelf for Sunday’s game on offense.
The Steelers and the Detroit Lions both enter the matchup pretty banged up, but have identical 8-6 records on the season. Pittsburgh is in control of its division, while the Lions are fighting for their playoff lives. Something has to give inside Ford Field.
Following what we did last year here at Steelers Depot, myself, Joe Clark, Ross McCorkle, Scott Brown, Troy Montgomery, Jake Brockhoff and Dr. Melanie Friedlander will answer four key questions weekly, previewing the games.
Let’s talk about the Steelers’ Week 16 matchup at Ford Field against the Detroit Lions.
QUESTION 1: WHO IS THE STEELERS’ X FACTOR AGAINST THE LIONS?
Josh Carney: DL Derrick Harmon. Set to make his return to the lineup after missing the last two games with another knee injury, his return to the lineup comes at a great time against one of the best running back tandems in football. When Harmon is in the lineup, the Steelers’ run defense is stout. When he’s not, they get gashed. That’s how impactful the rookie is. He needs to be on top of his game in his return to his hometown.
Joe Clark: QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s had a good last two games, and now he’s got to put it together again against a familiar foe in the Lions. Detroit has a potent offense that is going to put up points, and Rodgers needs to be the catalyst for the offense to keep pace. A performance anything worse than above-average won’t cut it if the Steelers are going to win.
Ross McCorkle: ILB Payton Wilson. They have a lot of guys that can do damage over the middle of the field, and a lot of speed to contend with on outside runs from Jahmyr Gibbs. Wilson has speed to match, and considers himself the best coverage linebacker in football. He needs to prove that here in a big matchup for him.
Scott Brown: LB Patrick Queen. He is playing his best football as a Steeler, and not a moment too soon. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is a stud (if you drafted him a year too early in fantasy football, I feel your pain). And David Montgomery is the thunder to Gibbs’ lightning. Beating the Lions and taking a huge step toward winning the AFC North starts with Queen and the Steelers’ front seven limiting their running game.
Troy Montgomery: WR DK Metcalf. Metcalf has come on strong in recent weeks. While he wasn’t as explosive last week as he was against the Baltimore Ravens, he still had a big play that helped the Steelers win. Metcalf should have more opportunities this week to make plays. The Lions’ secondary is beat up. Hitting some downfield shots to Metcalf should help the Steelers keep up with the Lions’ offense.
Jake Brockhoff: CB Joey Porter Jr. The Lions have a very complete passing game. It’s not as hard to accomplish with weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams on the outside. Joey Porter Jr. and Asante Samuel did well last week against Miami with James Pierre out. Pierre hasn’t practiced Wednesday or Thursday, so those two will have a very tough task ahead of them again this week. Porter especially needs to be up to the task.
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: QB Aaron Rodgers. This game could easily turn into a shootout, but only if the Steelers can keep up with the high-scoring Lions offense, which is ranked fourth overall. This is a game that will rely on Rodgers attacking a depleted Lions secondary without taking too many risks. With two starters missing on the left side of the offensive line, Rodgers will need to take chances when the opportunity is there and avoid taking too many sacks and risking injury.
QUESTION 2: WHAT IS THE MATCHUP TO WATCH IN STEELERS-LIONS?
Josh Carney: Steelers OLB Jack Sawyer vs. Lions RT Penei Sewell. Nick Herbig is trending towards not playing, and no T.J. Watt, too, is a major blow. That has rookie Jack Sawyer in line for his first career start. That he will get it against arguably the best right tackle in Detroit’s Penei Sewell is tough. Sawyer has been good against the run, but hasn’t generated much as a pass rusher. Sewell is lockdown in pass pro and is elite in the run game. Sawyer has to be able to handle his own in this matchup, or it could be a long day for the Steelers’ defense.
Joe Clark: Detroit’s speed vs. Pittsburgh’s DBs. The Steelers’ secondary doesn’t have a lot of speed, but they’re coming off their best game of the season against the Dolphins. On the flip side, the Lions’ offense has a ton of speed. Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa can stretch the field downfield, and Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the speediest backs in football. But it’s more the passing attack and the speed of Williams that can be dangerous, and Pittsburgh’s secondary needs to be ready.
Ross McCorkle: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CB Brandin Echols. St. Brown spends about half his time in the slot. That is a big test for the Steelers who have struggled with that type of receiver this year. Echols has been mostly solid, but occasionally struggles in certain matchups. He needs to win this one, or at least trade punches.
Scott Brown: RB Jaylen Warren vs. LB Jack Campbell. These two colliding on the field is like grainy black-and-white footage of the NFL before passing became little more than a disdain. Warren is a pinball of a back who runs as hard as anyone in the NFL. Campbell is a tackling machine who also plays with brute force. Kenneth Gainwell has been a revelation, but don’t forget about Warren. If he helps set the tone I like the Steelers’ chances.
Troy Montgomery: Steelers LB Payton Wilson vs. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs could be a serious problem for the Steelers. He’s one of the best running backs in the league, being electric with the ball in his hand. Wilson is a great athlete, and that’s going to need to be on display this week. Whether it’s running the ball or catching it, Wilson might be the Steelers’ best bet at containing Gibbs when he has the ball in his hands.
Jake Brockhoff: Lions EDGE Aidan Hutchinson vs. Steelers OTs. Troy Fautanu has been reliable all year, and Dylan Cook might have made himself some money with two solid performances in as many weeks. But the task is much more difficult against one of the best rushers in the league on Sunday. And on the other side of Aidan Hutchinson is Al-Quadin Muhammed, who has nine sacks this season. The Steelers need to score a lot to keep up in this one, but that only happens if the line protects Rodgers.
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: Steelers OLB Jack Sawyer versus Lions RT Penei Sewell. This almost feels like David and Goliath. Sewell is one of the best tackles in the league. Sawyer will likely be getting his first NFL start as a rookie in place of TJ Watt. Then again, Sawyer has been in a position room and on the practice field with three incredibly talented edge rushers in Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig. It will certainly be a “welcome to the NFL” moment for Sawyer.
QUESTION 3: WHAT IS THE BIGGEST KEY TO THE GAME FOR THE STEELERS?
Josh Carney: Communicate well on defense. The Lions are an explosive bunch offensively. They scheme things up very well and put a ton of strain on defenses. Communication will be incredibly important this week for the Steelers, especially on the road. Avoid the coverage busts, play sound fundamental football and just do your job. Don’t try to do too much in a big game. Stay within the defense, talk, and line up and play football down to down.
Joe Clark: Don’t turn the ball over. The Lions have a dangerous offense and will be able to take advantage of any extra opportunities. For the Steelers to keep pace and have a chance, it’s going to need to be a clean game.
Ross McCorkle: Stay aggressive. The Steelers finally won the snap count and time of possession battle last week by staying aggressive on fourth down. We know Dan Campbell will be doing that in a must-win game for the Lions, so the Steelers need to keep pace. Keep the Spartan (tush push) plays coming.
Scott Brown: Keep up with the Lions’ offense. The Steelers are coming off their best defensive performance of the season, but there are going to be points in this one. The Lions lead the NFL in scoring (30.6 points per game), are at home, and desperately need a win. The Steelers have to strike a balance between committing to the run but also taking shots downfield against a secondary that has suffered a rash of injuries. Good thing Aaron Rodgers is on a heater.
Troy Montgomery: Pressure Lions QB Jared Goff. The Lions’ offense doesn’t make many mistakes. It’s the best in the league at protecting the football. Therefore, the Steelers’ defense might need to win in different ways. That means pressuring Goff. He’s having a good year, but pressure can rattle any quarterback. The Steelers might not have T.J. Watt, but they’ll still need to get after Goff.
Jake Brockhoff: Start fast. Something the offense is capable of doing. Aside from its overall stinkers in bad losses, the offense has been able to score quickly. But there can’t be any delay this week. The Lions’ secondary is banged up, so if the Steelers look to be aggressive early, the same thing they did against Baltimore, they could jump on the Lions early. And it’s something they need to do. The Lions are not a team you want to give an early lead to.
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: Limit the passing game. The Lions have one of the best rushing offenses in the league but with Derrick Harmon returning this week, the Steelers are in better position to defend that. Jared Goff and his wide receivers have the third best passing offense in the league, with almost 250 yards per game and 30 passing touchdowns on the season. With only 28 sacks and five interceptions, Goff has an adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.97. The Steelers can’t stop Goff from connecting with his receivers and tight ends, so they need to find a way to slow him down.
QUESTION 4: WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR STEELERS AT LIONS?
Josh Carney: The Steelers are playing well in recent weeks, while the Lions are on a bit of a skid, losing two of their last three. Both teams are really banged up entering the matchup, but the Lions seem like the more physical team, at least on paper. I worry about the Steelers’ run defense with both T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig out of the lineup. Lions 27, Steelers 21
Joe Clark: The Steelers are playing well, but the Lions are a hungry team and haven’t lose two in a row in what feels like forever. In a raucous home environment, Detroit will come out on top, largely due to its run game and a few explosive plays. Lions 31 Steelers 27
Ross McCorkle: It feels wrong to start believing in this team again. This game feels like a litmus test, and a last chance for the team to build consistency and momentum prior to the playoffs. If they lose here, especially if it’s another defensive letdown, then all bets are off. I think they pull it off against a familiar Aaron Rodgers opponent playing in a dome. The Lions secondary is beat up beyond recognition and Rodgers will feast in a big statement win for the Steelers offense. Steelers 37, Lions 28
Scott Brown: The Steelers did a nice job against De’Von Achane last Monday night. Jahmyr Gibbs on a fast track will be a different story. Lions 31, Steelers 24
Troy Montgomery: The Lions aren’t as good as they were last year, and they’re dealing with a lot of injuries. However, I don’t like how the Steelers match up against them. No T.J. Watt doesn’t help things, either. I don’t think the Steelers can keep up with the Lions. Detroit’s offense is just too explosive. Lions 34, Steelers 24
Jake Brockhoff: The Steelers are capable of winning a game like this, but these two teams are in very different situations right now. The Lions have no time left, they have to win this week to stay in the playoff race. Not to say the Steelers would simply want it less, but the level of desperation is different from Pittsburgh, who probably won’t suffer any major consequences with a loss this week. The Lions have a different sense of urgency, and too much offensive talent. Lions 34, Steelers 28.
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: Both teams are dealing with significant injuries and have some weaknesses as a result. With the Steelers thin at outside linebacker and still missing James Pierre, they will have a hard time limiting the passing attack of the Lions. Add that the Steelers are on the road on a slightly short week, and the Lions have more at stake for their playoff hopes this week. Lions 31, Steelers 27