Two experts have warned that should E.J. Antoni, Donald Trump‘s new pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employ statistical methods that downplay the real-world effects of inflation, many Americans could end up paying higher taxes.
In an article for the Wall Street Journal, Tax Foundation President Daniel Bunn and Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said that “artificially low inflation numbers” could impact how the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) conducts its annual tax bracket adjustments, or “indexing.”
“Economic data affect government actions and could have surprising consequences,” the pair wrote. “If nominee E.J. Antoni manipulates the statistics to make Mr. Trump look good, you could end up paying higher taxes.”
Newsweek has contacted the BLS via email for comment on the article.
Why It Matters
Trump’s nomination of Antoni—and the circumstances surrounding the departure of former Commissioner Erika McEntarfer—have aroused significant criticism from former commissioners, economists and lawmakers. The firing of McEntarfer following a weak jobs report and the decision to replace her with a more conservative but less seasoned economist have raised questions about the political independence of the nation’s statistical agencies as well as the trustworthiness of future reports on employment and inflation.
However, the White House has maintained that Antoni has sufficient experience to serve as one of the country’s top economic statisticians and that he will spearhead long-overdue reforms at the bureau.
What To Know
The BLS periodically publishes data on both employment and prices—notably its monthly consumer price index (CPI), which serves as one of the most closely watched measures of headline inflation.
As Bunn and Pomerleau note, this is utilized by the IRS when making its annual inflation-based adjustments to tax brackets. This is done to prevent what is known as “bracket creep,” when inflation drives a household’s income above a new tax threshold, resulting in higher taxes despite no change in overall purchasing power.
“Consider what would happen if Mr. Trump prefers a political narrative of low inflation and the BLS finds a way to support it,” they wrote. “Artificially low inflation numbers would lead to artificially higher taxes as tax parameters are insufficiently adjusted for inflation each year.”
Keith Srakocic/via @realDonaldTrump, Truth Social / AP Photo, file
“As a mechanical matter, understating inflation will lead some people with the same real income to move to the next bracket,” French economist and MIT professor Olivier Blanchard told Newsweek.
The authors cite a 2024 paper co-authored by Antoni and fellow Heritage Foundation economist Peter St. Onge to demonstrate the nominee’s alternative statistical methods that could result in such revisions. In the paper, Antoni and St. Onge question the critique “egregious biases” in official inflation statistics, concluding that these have understated cumulative inflation since 2019 “by nearly half” and that the economy had been in a recession since 2022.
Menzie Chinn, professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, was unable to replicate their findings in a subsequent analysis.
“While we’ll admit that economic growth has been less than stellar in recent years, the claims by Messrs. Antoni and St. Onge are implausible and would have serious implications,” Bunn and Pomerleau wrote in their article.
What People Are Saying
White House Assistant Press Secretary told Newsweek previously: “President Trump selected Dr. E.J. Antoni III to restore America’s trust in the jobs data that has had major issues, without any real attempt at resolution, for years. Antoni’s education and vast experience as an economist has prepared him to produce accurate public data for businesses, households, and policymakers to inform their decision-making.
“Unlike the previous Commissioner, Antoni will produce overdue solutions to long-term issues at the Bureau and provide Americans with the accurate data they deserve,” Rogers added.
Daniel Bunn, president and CEO of the Tax Foundation, and Kyle Pomerleau, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote: “The BLS isn’t a press shop for a president’s preferred economic narrative, and we hope that Mr. Antoni approaches the job with deep respect for the value of consistent and defensible measures of the economy. If, as he has said, he is interested in improving those measures by boosting data-collection efforts, that would be a valuable contribution.
“But if he uses his role to develop alternative economic measures for political purposes, taxpayers will feel the effect,” they added. “Workers may not feel the ebb and flow of monthly data reports, but they will notice higher tax bills if Mr. Trump, aided by the BLS, undersells inflation.”
Economist Mark Gertler told Newsweek: “I don’t know Mr. Antoni. But I do have strong concerns about his ability as an economist. The paper purporting to show the economy was in recession in 2022 suggests weak economic skills.”
Friends of BLS, a group of stakeholders who support the bureau’s statistical mission, said last week: “It is hard to imagine a more important nomination and confirmation process in the history of the Bureau. The next Commissioner must not only manage the difficult responsibilities inherent to the role, but also restore public trust, defend the agency against political interference, and accelerate critical modernization efforts across all programs.”
What Happens Next?
Antoni requires Senate confirmation before he can office as BLS commissioner, but no hearing has yet been scheduled.
Democratic Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester has also called for Antoni to testify before the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee to “defend his qualifications and positions” ahead of a full Senate hearing.