India’s Retail Inflation Live Updates: Will inflation dip further in August?

SENSEX   81,909.04

+ 360.31

NIFTY   25,116.80

+ 111.30

CRUDEOIL   5,472.00

 -57.00

GOLD   109,426.00

+ 445.00

SILVER   128,400.00

+ 1,462.00

By Team BL

NEW DELHI, 15/06/2025: People seen busy buying vegetable at a market in New Delhi. File Photo: Sushil Kumar Verma /The Hindu
| Photo Credit:
Sushil Kumar Verma

ndia’s Retail Inflation 2025, Retail Inflation outlook for August 2025 updates: Retail inflation dipped to an 8 year-low of 1.55 per cent in July. Further, there is decline of 55 basis points in headline inflation of July, 2025 in comparison to June, 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation rate after June, 2017.

Reserve Bank of India, which aims to keep inflation in a 2%-6% tolerance band, has cut rates by 100 basis points so far this year but held them steady at its last meeting.

The inflation hit 6.21 in October 2024 and has been falling every month since then. The inflation was recorded at 2.82%, 2.1% and 1.55% in June, July and August respectively. CPI inflation could end its downward trend and slightly increase to 2.1% in August due to a fading “base effect” and rising food prices, according to a Reuters poll, compared to an 8-year low of 1.55% in July.

• September 12, 2025 13:11
  

  German inflation confirmed at 2.1% in August
  

  German inflation rose to 2.1% in August, the federal statistics office said on Friday, confirming preliminary data.

  German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, had risen by 1.8% year-on-year in July. 

• September 12, 2025 13:00
  

  Inflation Live News Update: French inflation eases to 0.8% in August
  

  France’s harmonised annual inflation rate, adjusted for comparison with other euro zone countries, edged down to was 0.8% in August from 0.9% in July, French statistics office INSEE said on Friday, in line with both the prelimenary reading and a Reuters poll of analysts.

  The figure supports comments from Bank of France Governor and European Central Bank governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who said inflation is under control in a statement on Tuesday after euro zone inflation edged up to 2.1%.
• September 12, 2025 12:37
  

  Inflation Live News Updates: Spain’s 12-month EU-harmonised inflation confirmed at 2.7% in August
  

  Spain’s European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation rate remained at 2.7% in August, the same as in the period through July, final data released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) showed on Friday.

  Core inflation, which strips out volatile fresh food and energy prices, rose to 2.4% in the 12-months through August, up from 2.3% in the period through July, the INE said. (Reuters)
• September 12, 2025 12:35
  

  Feel good factor from GST rate cut, housing demand to rise during festivals: CREDAI
  

  Indian government’s decision to cut GST rates on various products will increase purchasing power of consumers and boost demand for residential properties in the upcoming festive season, according to realtors’ body CREDAI.

  The association, which has a 13,000 members from across India, said the construction cost is expected to come down because of reduction in GST rates on cement and few other building materials.

• September 12, 2025 12:20
  

  Inflation Live: UBI Report says WPI bounced back in August
  

  The UBI report highlighted that the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) bounced back after touching a recent low in July, supported by broad-based gains across food, fuel, and core segments. The shift also reflected the fading impact of a high base, with WPI at 1.25 per cent in August 2024 compared to 2.10 per cent in July 2024.

  The report expected that the food inflation, which had been in deflation for the past two months, returned to positive territory in August. It is expected to be at a three-month high of 0.21 per cent against -2.14 per cent in July. The rise in food prices was broad-based, with almost all sub-segments witnessing a sequential strengthening.
• September 12, 2025 11:53
  

  CPI Inflation Live Updates: RBI says flexible inflation targeting framework served India well amid global challenges
  

  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said that the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has worked well since its introduction and has served the needs of the country even during difficult times. 

  In a recent report, the RBI highlighted that the FIT framework, which was introduced to maintain the inflation rate in the country, has broadly performed well in terms of price stability.
• September 12, 2025 11:40
  

  Inflation Live News Update: CPI inflation may have increased to 2.23% in August, says Deutsche Bank
  

  India’s August CPI inflation increased to 2.23 per cent y-o-y from 1.55 per cent in July.

  Further, in the absence of a food price shock, inflation is expected to remain subdued in the near term—around 2.1 per cent in July–September and 2.6 per cent in October–December — well below the mandated 4 per cent target. Thereafter, CPI inflation will likely rise to 4.4 per cent average in Jan-March ’26, as the base effect becomes more challenging.

• September 12, 2025 11:25
  

  25 bps rate cut in October MPC likely, says Deutsche Bank
  

  “While, we are almost at the end of the rate-cutting cycle, we think a forward-looking MPC will prefer to provide an insurance rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the meeting on October 1, considering the risks to the future growth trajectory,” Deutsche Bank said in its India Economics Weekly report.
• September 12, 2025 11:15
  

  Retail Inflation Live: The full pass through of GST cut could create disinflationary impact of at least 100 bps, says Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank
  

• September 12, 2025 11:06
  

  RBI paper invokes suggestions to tweak inflation tolerance range
  

  The suggestion to keep inflation tolerance between 1% to 1.5% comes in the backdrop of the RBI releasing a discussion paper on reviewing the monetary policy framework.

  The RBI paper broadly discusses four questions 

  1. whether the current 4 per cent inflation target continues to be appropriate
  2. whether only a range should be maintained
  3. whether headline or core inflation should be targeted
  4. whether the tolerance band should be narrowed, widened, or even removed.

• September 12, 2025 10:44
  

  RBI in the process of further simplifying access to economic data: ED Joshi
  

  

  RBI in the process of further simplifying access to economic data: ED Joshi

  RBI simplifies data access for economic analysis, benefiting analysts, researchers, and students, with a focus on policy-making.

• September 12, 2025 10:36
  

  CPI Inflation Live News: Possible shortfall in nominal GDP growth in FY26 due to benign inflation, says CEA Nageswaran
  

  Given the expectation of benign inflation, there may be a shortfall in nominal GDP growth compared to the Budget estimate of 10.1 per cent for the current financial year, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said.

  He expressed optimism about meeting the real GDP growth target of 6.3-6.8 per cent for the current fiscal year despite the US imposing a steep 50 per cent tariff on Indian shipments.

  ​

  

  Possible shortfall in nominal GDP growth in FY26 due to benign inflation: CEA Nageswaran

  Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran discusses the impact of inflation on GDP growth and the effects of US tariffs.

  ​

• September 12, 2025 10:24
  

  August Inflation Live Updates: Could there be another rate cut in the next RBI MPC?
  

  Lower inflation in the US could buttress market positioning for a Federal Reserve rate cut, probably making room for the RBI to follow suit, traders said.

  US retail inflation for August was released after Indian market hours on Thursday. The inflation in US stood at 2.9% year-on-year against 2.7% in the previous month. (Reuters)
• September 12, 2025 10:15
  

  Inflation band in India can be narrowed to 1-1.5% from 2% to improve policy effectiveness, says Report
  

  The current inflation band in India can be narrowed to 1 to 1.5 per cent compared to the existing 2 per cent to improve its effectiveness, according to a report by JM Financials.

  Currently, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) follows a framework that targets inflation within the 2-6 per cent band, with 4 per cent as the midpoint.

  

  Inflation band in India can be narrowed to 1-1.5% from 2% to improve policy effectiveness: Report

  Report suggests narrowing India’s inflation band to 1-1.5% for improved effectiveness, aligning with some Asian peers like Indonesia.
• September 12, 2025 10:00
  

  GST rate cuts set to lift GDP, cool inflation, say economists
  

  A reduction in Goods & Services Tax (GST) rates could add as much as 120 basis points (1.2 per cent) to India’s gross domestic product over the next year, while simultaneously easing inflationary pressures, economists have said. The measures are expected to buoy consumption, even as fiscal balances remain largely unaffected.

  

  GST rate cuts set to lift GDP, cool inflation, say economists

  GST rate cuts expected to boost India’s GDP by 1.2%, ease inflation, and stimulate consumption without major fiscal impact.

• September 12, 2025 09:48
  

  CPI Inflation Live: Reduced GST rates likely to lower inflation by about 25 bps, says Deutsche Bank
  

  Deutsche Bank said while the GST rates rationalization can come as a useful offset to the tariff-related downside risks to growth. However, it also stated that it is too early to adjust its long-held 6.5 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) growth forecast for FY26 and FY27.

  Further, reduced GST rates are likely to lower inflation by about 25 basis points (bps) from baseline estimates but there are so many different factors at interplay, it is difficult to be sanguine about the future inflation trajectory.

  

  Reduced GST rates may lower inflation by 25 bps: Deutsche Bank

  Deutsche Bank analyzes GST rates impact on growth, inflation, and fiscal deficit, suggesting potential adjustments and future projections.
• September 12, 2025 09:37
  

  Retail Inflation Live Updates: India bonds inch up before key inflation data
  

  Indian government bonds gained slightly on Thursday before inflation data in both the U.S. and India.

  The yield on the 10-year benchmark note slipped to 6.4666%, from the previous close of 6.4790%.

  India’s consumer price inflation, due on Friday, is expected to have accelerated to 2.1% in August due to a fading “base effect” and rising food prices, according to a Reuters poll, compared to an 8-year low of 1.55% in July.
• September 12, 2025 09:32
  

  CPI Inflation Live Updates: Per plate food cost in India moderated in August as inflation moderates
  

  Costs of home-cooked vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis declined 7% and 8% year-on-year in August, respectively, in line with moderate commodity prices, according to Crisil Intelligence’s latest Roti Rice Rate (RRR) report.

  

  Per plate food cost in India moderated in August as inflation moderates

  Crisil Intelligence’s RRR report shows 7% drop in vegetarian thali costs, 8% in non-vegetarian, due to commodity prices.

• September 12, 2025 09:32
  

  Headline inflation likely to remain below 4% target in 2025: RBI
  

  India’s headline inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will likely remain significantly below 4 per cent in 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) state of economy report said.

  

  Headline inflation likely to remain below 4% target in 2025: RBI

  Resilient Indian economy faces downside risk from US trade tensions, with inflation expected to remain below target.

• September 12, 2025 09:31
  

  India Inflation Live Updates: India’s wholesale inflation likely turn positive in August after record low in July: UBI Report
  

  Wholesale inflation in India likely turned positive in August 2025, rising to 0.45 per cent year-on-year after recording a contraction of -0.58 per cent in July, according to a report by Union Bank of India (UBI).

  

  India’s wholesale inflation likely turn positive in August after record low in July: UBI Report

  Union Bank of India report predicts positive wholesale inflation in India, driven by food, fuel, and core segments.

THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM.
SUBSCRIBE
FOR MINIMAL ADS.

THIS AD SUPPORTS OUR JOURNALISM.
SUBSCRIBE
FOR MINIMAL ADS.

Sign into Unlock benefits!

• Access 10 free stories per month
• Access to comment on every story
• Sign up/Manage to our newsletters
• Get notified by email for early preview to new features, discounts & offers