General
FMCG major ITC will announce its Q1 earnings on Friday, where the company is expected to report muted earnings weighed down by margin pressure in its core segments, particularly FMCG and paper. While cigarettes are expected to post stable volume growth, gains are likely to be offset by rising input costs.
The estimates of YES Securities, PhillipCapital, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) and Kotak Institutional Equities have been taken into account. Here’s what top brokerages expect across key metrics:
General 1. PAT: Modest growth seen
Motilal Oswal estimates ITC’s Q1FY26 PAT at Rs 5,220 crore, up 2.5% YoY.
PhillipCapital expects profit at Rs 5,013 crore, rising 4.1% YoY and 2.8% QoQ.
YES Securities forecasts PAT at Rs 4,974 crore, up 1.1% YoY.
Kotak Equities sees a flat PAT of Rs 4,918 crore, with marginal QoQ growth of 0.9%.
General 2. Revenue: Led by cigarettes and agri businesses
Motilal Oswal pegs revenue at Rs 19,400 crore, up 5.1% YoY, driven by stable cigarette and agri businesses.
YES Securities projects revenue of Rs 18,009 crore, marking a 5.9% YoY rise.
PhillipCapital expects revenue at Rs 17,523 crore (up 8% YoY, 3% QoQ).
Kotak sees more subdued growth at Rs 17,474 crore, up 2.8% YoY and and up 1.3% QOQ
General 3. EBITDA: Flat to slight uptick
Motilal Oswal forecasts EBITDA of Rs 6,780 crore, a marginal 0.5% YoY increase.
YES Securities sees flat growth at Rs 6,313 crore, up just 0.3% YoY.
PhillipCapital estimates EBITDA at Rs 6,212 crore, rising 2.2% YoY.
Kotak Equities expects a slight decline at Rs 6,226 crore, down 1.1% YoY.
General 4. EBITDA margin: Pressures seen
YES Securities expects EBITDA margin to fall by 200 bps YoY to 35.1%.
PhillipCapital estimates a margin of 35.5% versus 35.2% in Q4FY25 and 37.5% Q1FY25.
Motilal Oswal expects margin to drop to 34.9% from 36.6% in Q1FY25.
Kotak Equities pegs margin at 35.6%, down 140 bps YoY but up 92 bps sequentially.
General Segment Outlook
General Cigarettes
Motilal Oswal anticipates 5% volume and sales growth while estimating EBIT margin may shrink by 40 bps due to leaf tobacco inflation. Kotak sees 4.5% volume growth with 165 bps EBIT margin contraction.
YES Securities models 5.5% volume growth while PhillipCapital expects 4% volume growth, with continued input cost pressure.
General FMCG (Non-cigarette)
Motilal Oswal expects 4% revenue growth, but a 16% EBIT decline and a 170 bps margin erosion. Kotak sees 5% growth, with EBIT margin at 6.8%, down 190 bps QoQ. PhillipCapital predicts mid-single-digit growth, led by foods over BPC; stationery drags.
As for YES Securities, a 4% YoY revenue growth is seen.
General Paperboard, Paper & Packaging
Kotak expects 6% growth amid weak pricing and low demand; EBIT margin at 10%.
YES Securities sees a 6% YoY uptick while Motilal Oswal views the segment as weak during the quarter.
General Agri Business
Motilal Oswal and YES Securities both estimate 10% YoY growth.
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