T.J. Watt certainly earned his record-breaking contract for what he’s done, but the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t just pay him for the past—they paid him because they think his dominance can continue into the future.
Watt had the lowest sack total in a healthy season since his rookie year with 11.5 in 2024, but things appear to be setting up nicely for a big bounce back.
“I have high expectations for Watt. I said he’s a 20-sack guy; he might flirt with his own record here coming up,” Mark Kaboly said Sunday via 93.7 The Fan with Austin Bechtold. “It’s all set up, barring injury, for T.J. Watt to have a monster season. It’s set up that they want to play man defense as much as possible. Press man, three guys, and that prevents the easy dump-off passes, let the quarterback hold onto the ball a little bit more. And we’ve seen some twists to the defensive schemes so far of flipping them around.”
There are a lot of factors piling up in Watt’s favor. And let’s start with the guys around him on defense. Alex Highsmith was injured for long stretches of last season, which allowed offenses to focus on Watt more. It’s easy to forget how dominant Highsmith is capable of being because his sack totals haven’t been great the last two years. But he has been one of the most efficient pass rushers at generating pressure in the league when healthy. And first-round DT Derrick Harmon should be an upgrade playing next to Watt over Larry Ogunjobi. That alone should free up Watt.
The secondary should also play a big role in getting Watt home. Mike Tomlin believes the Steelers have the personnel to match up in man coverage against anybody. That might leave them more susceptible to long-developing plays, but that plays right into Watt’s hand. That extra quarter or half second is all he needs to get home. In this system, more of Watt’s 57 total pressures from last season could become quarterback hits. And some of his 27 quarterback hits could become sacks.
Finally, the idea of moving Watt around is sure to create headaches for opposing offensive coordinators. They all seemed to crack the code last season by chipping him at the highest rate of any pass rusher in the league. They were only able to do that because he lined up in the same spot on just about every play. If he flips sides, offenses are going to have to show their hand by motioning to Watt’s side and wasting time pre-snap. And they won’t always be able to follow him around in that way.
I agree that Watt should be in for at least one more monster season on this new contract. And I don’t think anybody should write off the possibility of him breaking his own NFL single-season sack record.
