New Poll Shows Top 2028 Democratic, Republican Candidates By Texas Voters

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A new poll shows Texas registered voters’ favorite candidates for the 2028 presidential election.

Why It Matters

Early polls, especially in crucial swing states, have gained significance as potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election begin to emerge.

Even with the election still a few years away, polling could offer insight into candidate viability, voter sentiment and evolving party dynamics, particularly after the pivotal 2024 election cycle.

What To Know

In the poll by Emerson College released Friday, the Lone Star State’s top contenders for Democrats in the potential primary are former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 22 percent, California Governor Gavin Newsom with 20 percent and former Vice President Kamala Harris with 17 percent of the vote. The survey shows 14 percent remain undecided.

For Republicans, Vice President JD Vance leads the pack with 45 percent of the vote, followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 9 percent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 6 percent apiece and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy with 5 percent. The poll shows 17 percent are undecided.

The survey was conducted on August 11 and August 12 among 1,000 actively registered voters in Texas. The margin of error for the survey is 3 percent.

Texas registered voters also say the economy is the top issue, followed by immigration, threats to democracy, health care, crime and education.

In a previous poll surveying North Carolina registered voters, Buttigieg led the Democrats, followed by Harris and Newsom. Vance led Republicans, followed by DeSantis and then Rubio.

What People Are Saying

D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek: “The Emerson poll results differ from recent numbers we’ve seen from other polling organizations. (That’s not only true on the Democratic side: Having Paxton behind Cornyn, after a big lead in some previous polls, has been remarkable as well.) While the Emerson results could represent significant shifts in how voters are leaning within both major parties, election watchers should take a wait-and-see approach on these new numbers, until they’re reinforced by later polling.”

Voss added: “Buttigieg performed better than usual nationally in Emerson’s June poll as well, compared to other poll results. It’s possible Emerson’s methodology somehow picks up Buttigieg’s support base more strongly than other polling. Still, even if the numbers are somehow inflated, it’s a solid showing for a former mayor and former Cabinet member. Buttigieg doesn’t have the advantages of a former vice president or a California governor, when it comes to attracting publicity. For him to be holding his own in national polling is a strongly positive sign.”

In a previous comment to Newsweek, Columbia University Professor Robert Y. Shapiro said: “The Democratic primary polling is much too early and all we are seeing is name recognition for past presidential candidates and ones in the news lately in a visible way. On the Republican side, DeSantis and Rubio are damaged goods as past losers in the past Republican primaries in 2016 and 2024. Vance is on the rise by virtue of being Vice President and visible when he echoes or advocates more strongly Trump’s MAGA positions and what Trump—and he—have done. He has not been defeated in any past major election so untarnished in that respect.”

Trump, while answering questions during a news conference on the 2028 Olympics, when directly asked if Vance is the successor to MAGA: “Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it’s too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”

What Happens Next

Additional polling will continue, especially as midterm election campaigns ramp up.

Update 8/15/25, 5:34 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from D. Stephen Voss.