NFC Playoff Picture: Buccaneers on thin ice, Packers put Bears on notice

This is officially the stretch run of the NFL regular season, with only four weeks left on the docket after this Monday. The NFC playoff picture is particularly convoluted as we approach the final buzzer. Only two games separates the top wild card seed and the first team out. The division leaders in the NFC West and the NFC South are tied. In the NFC North, the only difference between first-place Green Bay and second-place Chicago is the difference between a loss and a tie.

Much change change in the days and weeks ahead, but here’s the NFC’s competitive landscape as it currently sits. Just be prepared for a lot of high-stakes football on the horizon.

NFC Playoff Picture after Bucs hit wall, Seahawks and Rams dominate

The NFC North and the NFC West remain extremely prevalent in the NFC standings. As it stands, it feels like five postseason spots will be split between those divisions, with the NFC South and the NFC East only receiving the autobid for their division champs. Detroit is right on the bubble (more on that in a moment), so it’s just a matter of figuring out which division gets three.

If asked to pick the “best” division, it feels like the NFC West takes the crown. Los Angeles and Seattle might boast the best offenses in the NFL, while the Bears, Packers (and potentially Lions) have all felt a bit more volatile week-to-week.

In the hunt

The Minnesota Vikings kept their faint postseason hopes alive with a rousing 31-0 win over the Commanders in J.J. McCarthy’s return from injury. Unfortunately, their odds sit below one percent, according to NFL.com, so don’t get your hopes up.

The NFC field condensed on Sunday, as the Atlanta Falcons are officially eliminated following a blowout loss to Seattle.

Dallas’ odds sit at seven percent. Carolina, tied with Tampa in the NFC South, has a 30 percent chance. The Lions, despite missing the cut as of now, have 53 percent odds, per NFL.com.

Bucs are in the danger zone

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost four of its last five and five of its last seven. The Bucs are in free fall, and these last four weeks will determine their postseason fate.

A couple factors still favor Tampa Bay: strength of schedule and the tiebreaker.

As things stand, Tampa holds the tiebreaker over Carolina due to a better record against shared opponents. Tampa faces Carolina twice over the next four weeks, as if fated. If Tampa wins both games, the division is essentially wrapped up. If the Bucs and Panthers split those games, Tampa is still in the driver’s seat. Two losses to Carolina, however, would qualify as a season-ending nightmare for the Bucs.

Their remaining schedule couldn’t be much more favorable, though. Tampa just needs to avoid a two-game sweep in the Carolina game and handle its business against lesser opponents.

By comparison, Carolina’s remaining schedule poses a slightly greater challenge:

That Seattle game looms like a specter over Carolina’s season right now. If the Panthers can beat Tampa twice, the sailing gets smoother. But if that series ends in a split and Carolina can’t upset Seattle, the Bucs figure to waltz into the postseason. That’s not to say Tampa can’t lay another egg against an inferior opponent — it’s become something of a trend. Carolina can also slay the giant against Seattle, for all we know. This is the same Panthers team that just beat Los Angeles. But as things sit, the odds favor Tampa ever so slightly, pending the head-to-head matchups.

The Cowboys blew their shot

The Dallas Cowboys won three straight over Las Vegas, Philadelphia and Kansas City coming into their Thurdsay night bout against the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately, the Cowboys’ defense put on a vintage performance (derogatory). After appearing to figure a few things out post-trade deadline, the Cowboys were lit up in a 44-30 road loss. The game was never particularly close; Detoit outclassed them from the jump.

Dak Prescott has put up huge numbers all season. He’d be in the MVP conversation on a winning team. That said, Dallas just can’t generate stops frequently enough to truly contend, especially with so much quality competition across the NFC. There’s still a faint hope, but it would require multiple wild card teams wetting the bed — or, perhaps more likely, a full-on collapse from the Eagles.

Definitely do not discount the possibility of Philadelphia imploding, as the frustrations — both in the locker room and in the fanbase — have been mounting for weeks. But even with one of the least efficient offenses in the NFL, Philly has an elite defense and a winnable schedule that features two showdowns against the 3-10 Commanders, as well as a game against the 2-11 Raiders. Again, Philly could just fall apart and lose games it shouldn’t. But Dallas had a chance to swing the pendulum in its favor and blew it.

Packers win marquee showdown against Bears

On fourth-and-one, with less than 30 seconds left in the fourth quarter, Caleb Williams rolled out to his left. Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers fans could feel the weight of the world on their chests. Williams floated it up toward this end zone — and this was the outcome.

CALEB WILLIAMS PICKED OFF BY KEISEAN NIXON! pic.twitter.com/KlOz0gv1rT

— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2025

Green Bay held on despite the Bears’ best second half comeback effort, which has become a staple of Chicago’s success all season long. There were positives and negatives for both teams, but Green Bay won its most pivotal game of the season — and claimed the top spot in the NFC North, for now.

There is a rematch in two weeks that could have even greater stakes. Chicago is right on the bubble, though, and their schedule features no real softball, aside from next Sunday’s matchup against the Browns. And even the Browns, with their vaunted pass rush, could give Caleb Williams and this Bears offense some trouble.

That season finale against Detroit is also a huge game, potentially. The Lions are only a game behind Chicago. There’s a world in which Ben Johnson faces his former team with a postseason berth on the line. The Bears lost to Detroit, 52-21, all the way back in Week 2.