There’s one massive problem with Kyren Williams. He’s a human playing a game where people expect god-like performances.
Except outside of being a genetic freak and having a fumbling issue massively overblown by some, Williams is one of the best running backs in the NFL, and if the Rams were to let him go, it would be the most devastating move for the franchise since they allowed both Kevin Greene and Jerome Bettis to end up on the Steelers.
With Williams on the field, the Rams average 27.2 points per game. With him off the field, the Rams average 14.3 points per game. Williams improved the Rams’ offensive output by two touchdowns in games he played in versus games he didn’t. Williams was also outperforming 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey on the ground.
In 2023, Williams was third in the NFL in rushing yards. Christian McCaffery has 1,459 yards in 16 games, Derrick Henry has 1,167 yards in 17 games, and Williams had 1,144 in 12 games. Williams led the NFL in yards per game, but that wasn’t his most impressive feat.
Here’s the part where Williams is most valuable. Matthew Stafford’s numbers are a tale of two stories with and without Williams. In the 11 games that Stafford and Williams played with each other in 2023, Stafford threw for over 250 yards eight times. In the three games that Stafford played without Williams, Stafford put up 231 yards against Pittsburgh, 162 against Dallas, and 190 against Seattle.
So why did Stafford struggle without Williams? Sean McVay didn’t trust Royce Freeman, Darrell Henderson Jr, or any other running back enough to attack teams with a rushing attack.
Despite McVay’s reputation as a master of the pass, his offense is built on the run. Being able to effectively run the football opens up everything, especially passing lanes. McVay didn’t have that in 2023 until Williams stepped up.
Often Stafford was throwing the ball on second down, force-feeding Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, a Kupp who was coming off an injury, leading to incompletions that would force third and long situations that the Rams would fail to convert.
Things were so bad, Stafford was just gunning it in hopes of a completion that he threw an interception to T.J. Watt downfield. That’s what happens when Williams isn’t on the field.
Let’s fast forward to 2024. There’s a narrative that Williams’ second 1,000-yard season was due to a massive increase in carries, and to an extent, that’s true, but it’s not the entire truth.
Williams finished as the seventh-best running back in football with 1,299 yards, after seeing an increase in carries, going from 228 in 2023 to 316 in 2024.
Let’s take a deeper look. In the Rams first five games of the season, they went 1-4 before their bye week. In that time, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Alaric Jackson, Steve Avila, Jonah Jackson, and Tyler Higbee either were injured, got injured, or were suspended, leading to all of them missing multiple games.
The one win, against the 49ers, was the game within that five-game stretch where Williams got the most carries. It should also be noted that with a banged-up offensive line and a box loaded with defenders, Williams, when given more than 18 carries, averaged 95 yards per game, the same mark he led the NFL with in 2023, during the five-game stretch.
Keep in mind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, the number one and two running backs in the NFL in 2024, averaged 21.5 and 19.1 carries per game, respectively. Williams averaged 19.75 carries in 2024 and had the third-most carries in the NFL, something that makes sense considering he was the third-best running back the year before.
So the Rams sit at 1-4. They come back from the BYE week and rally with three straight wins. In those games, Williams averaged 22 carries a game and 80 yards per game.
In those three games, Nacua and Kupp were absent for the Raiders game and Nacua got himself ejected in the first half of the Seattle contest.
So the only game out of the first eight of the 2024 season that Nacua and Kupp played the entire game, Williams had 23 carries for 97 yards. That was against the Vikings, who had the second-best rushing defense in the NFL.
In the eight games that followed in which Williams participated in, the Rams went 6-2 to win the NFC West. When Williams received more than 19 carries, the Rams were 3-0. In the games he received under 19 carries, they went 3-2.
In those three wins, Williams recorded yardage of 86, 104, and 56.
In the game where he only recorded 56 yards, against the Arizona Cardinals to clinch the division, Williams only had 13 carries, the second lowest of the season to the Rams’ blowout loss to the Cardinals in Arizona. Williams also accounted for the Rams’ only touchdowns in those two contests.
Keep in mind that in 2023 against Arizona, Williams had a combined 36 carries for 301 yards. He also has a game with six receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns.
When the Rams used Williams, they blew out the Cardinals twice. His usage decreases, and the Rams get blown out in Arizona, and they barely escape with a win the second time around.
Williams is one of eight running backs to have been named a first or second team All-Pro over the past six years.
Williams is joined by Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry,
Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley. They all had 1,000-yard seasons the year their extensions kicked in except for Kamara, who’s never had a 1,000-yard season.
The Rams are currently paying Tutu Atwell $10 million to be their WR3. Are we really saying Williams isn’t worth $9-$15 million as the Rams RB1?
Even if he’s asking for more, I end on this simple point. Sean McVay was ready to walk away from football after the 2022 season. He found his love for the game again but love goes away when all you do is lose.
Look at the numbers. When Williams is on the field and is utilized, they win; when he’s not, they lose.
Williams may not look like Saquon Barkley, but he produces like him when given similar circumstances, in the same way, he was outproducing Christian McCaffery.
And at an average salary of $992,601, through sheer will and an innate ability to be great, with the team strapped on his back, he pulled the Rams into the playoffs twice.
When given weapons so the defense doesn’t focus on him, he’s putting up league leading numbers while not even leading the league in carries.
The Rams have Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Tyler Higbee. Defenders have to try to account for that. Williams is bound for another massive season just by playing in an offense where defenses can’t focus on him.
So before that happens and the Rams need to start asking tough questions, before reporters and writers start asking tough questions about the Rams, before this becomes a situation everyone points to as a defining moment in why the Rams weren’t able to chase championships, pay the man, and let the good times roll.
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