SEC tiebreaker scenarios after OU upsets Alabama, Georgia tops Texas: Where every contender stands

Had the Alabama Crimson Tide won out over their final three regular season games, they would’ve waltzed into the SEC Championship Game. Instead, the SEC title scenarios and tiebreakers have now gotten much more complicated with Bama losing at home to the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday. It gives the Tide their first loss in conference play this season. And after Texas A&M survived a nightmare from South Carolina earlier in the day, it created chaos in the race to Atlanta for the conference championship game, besides the obvious rankings and CFP implications.

If that weren’t enough, the marquee nightcap of the night gave us another statement win, though not of the upset variety. Georgia and Texas were locked in a dogfight for much of the game in Athens, but it was the Bulldogs — and Kirby Smart’s guts — that ultimately pushed the Dawgs well ahead in the fourth quarter to notch an emphatic win that makes UGA a near lock for the CFP. But that’s not necessarily true about the SEC title game as we start to look at the scenarios and tiebreakers at play.

Current SEC standings

When the dust settles, the current standings amount just teams in the SEC that are still alive to head to Atlanta and play for the conference title. Those teams are Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. However, the path to the SEC Championship Game is anything but simple for some while it’s quite simple for others. Here’s a look at the tiebreaker scenarios at play, and what each of the still-alive SEC contenders will need to play for the conference championship.

Oklahoma, unfortunately, has head-to-head losses that effectively eliminate them from the SEC Championship Game contention with falling at the hands of Georgia and Texas earlier in the season. Texas was also then eliminated in the late action with the loss to the Bulldogs.

SEC tiebreaker scenarios for the 3 remaining contenders

Texas A&M Aggies

Remaining Schedule: vs. Samford | at Texas

While orchestrating a program record comeback to beat South Carolina, 31-30, on Saturday might put the Aggies at 7-0 with only one SEC game remaining on the schedule, Texas A&M’s hopes of making it to the conference championship game are anything but certain at this point, which largely comes down to the regular season finale on the road in Austin against rival Texas.

If Texas A&M were to lose that game, regardless of the Longhorns being alive or not to make the SEC Championship Game, they would be in a world of trouble because of their cumulative win percentage of opponents in the conference. They will end up behind Alabama and Georgia in that category, as Texas is their only opponent in the top half of the SEC standings as of right now.

Having said that, Texas A&M is the only team that controls its own destiny in the SEC, facing a win-and-in scenario against Texas.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Remaining Schedule: vs. E Illinois | at Auburn

Even with the loss to Oklahoma, that was only Alabama’s first defeat in conference play this season, and they’ll be heavy favorites in the Iron Bowl against rival Auburn. At the same time, finishing the season 7-1 might not be the most advantageous scenario for the Crimson Tide. While they own a head-to-head tiebreaker over Georgia, that could potentially be immaterial when the final conference standings are decided if there’s a three-way tie also involving Ole Miss, once again going to the cumulative winning percetnage of opponents.

Beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl would obviously keep Alabama very much alive, and a Texas A&M loss to Texas on top of that would all but ensure the Crimson Tide will head to Atlanta. Where it gets tricky is with two of the lesser teams in the conference, Kentucky and Florida. If the Wildcats and Gators were to win against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, respectively, in Week 13, that would give Georgia and Ole Miss the advantage over Alabama to make the SEC Championship Game in a three-way tiebreaker.

Georgia Bulldogs

Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte | vs. Georgia Tech

The Week 12 matchup with Texas was absolutely crucial for Georgia in its plight to get back to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. A loss would’ve effectively eliminated the Dawgs from the race in the conference, especially with the loss to Alabama in conference play hanging over them. But now that they’ve picked up the win and also concluded SEC play, they are in a phenomenal position.

As mentioned with Texas A&M, UGA winning on Saturday night against Texas put the heat on the Aggies to do the same in the final week of the regular season. If the Aggies were to lose on the road in Austin, Georgia would all but surely leap ahead of A&M based on cumulative conference winning percentage of opponents.

Texas, Oklahoma and Ole Miss are eliminated from SEC Championship contention

Georgia’s win on Saturday night over Texas obviously helped the Bulldogs chances and eliminated the Longhorns from conference championship contention — but it also closed the door for two other would-be contenders in Oklahoma and Ole Miss.

For the Rebels, it’s quite simple in that, even if they finish with only one conference loss, their head-to-head tiebreaker loss to Georgia will keep them out of the conference title game. Meanwhile, for Oklahoma, the chances were already razor-thin that they could make it in with a ton of help elsewhere in the conference, but Georgia’s win put an end to that as it was the first bit of help needed.