The Price of Peace: Putin’s plan to carve up Ukraine

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Putin demanded that Ukraine pull out of Donetsk and Luhansk to end the war, and told Trump he would halt fighting elsewhere if this demand was accepted. The Russian leader made this request during his meeting with Trump in Alaska on Friday, according to four people with direct knowledge of the talks, reports Financial Times.

Trump passed this message to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders in a call on Saturday, where he asked them to stop trying for a ceasefire with Moscow. The move would give Moscow full control of an area it has partly occupied for over 10 years, where its troops are now advancing at the fastest pace since November.

In return for Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin said he would freeze the frontline in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where his forces already hold large areas, and would not start new attacks to grab more land, according to three people familiar with the talks.

Putin made it clear that he has not given up his main demands to “fix the root causes” of the war, which would end Ukraine’s current statehood (meaning Ukraine would lose its independence in the present form) and push back NATO’s expansion to the east.

But the Russian president is ready to compromise on other issues, even territory, if he feels the “root causes” are solved, said a former senior Kremlin official.

Russian forces control about 70% of Donetsk, but the western cities are still held by Ukraine and are crucial for its military and defence on the eastern front. In Luhansk, Russia controls almost everything except a small part in the west.

People close to Zelenskyy said he would not agree to give up Donetsk, but he is willing to talk about territory with Trump in Washington when they meet on Monday, 18th August.

Zelenskyy is also ready to discuss the issue in a three-way meeting with Trump and Putin, the people said.

According to one Ukrainian official, Trump told Zelenskyy that Putin might negotiate on giving back small parts of Sumy and Kharkiv to Kyiv’s control. But the official said the offer was not serious, since Russia controls very little in those areas.

Another person familiar with the matter said Zelenskyy welcomed Trump’s offer of US security guarantees to Ukraine, but the details are not yet clear. The two presidents will talk more about it on Monday, the official added.

Putin’s territorial demands have become tougher since April, when he told Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff that Russia could freeze the whole frontline if its “root causes” were solved.

“Freeze the whole frontline” means that Russia would stop fighting and not try to capture more land along the battle line. The war would not officially end, but the frontline would stay fixed where it is, with no new attacks or advances.

The White House did not comment on what Trump discussed with Putin, reports Financial Times.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the FT: “It was a very important conversation that could help reach an agreement. The talks will continue, but the details cannot be shared publicly.”

After returning to Moscow, Putin told top officials in the Kremlin that the trip was “timely and very useful”, according to state TV footage. He said he had explained the reasons for the crisis to Trump and that any peace deal must address those reasons.

Trump entered Friday’s meeting warning of serious consequences if Putin refused a ceasefire. But he left with nothing and instead passed on Putin’s demands for land concessions to European leaders.

In a social media post on Saturday, Trump told European leaders to stop pushing for a ceasefire with Putin and advised Zelenskyy to “make a deal” with Russia.

Trump wrote on Truth Social after a call with European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is a direct Peace Agreement, not just a Ceasefire Agreement, which often fails.

Trump added that “if all goes well, we will plan a meeting with President Putin.”

The Kremlin said that Putin and Trump did not talk about a three-way meeting with Zelenskyy in Anchorage (City in Alaska) .

The Russian demand and Trump’s refusal to push for a ceasefire are likely to worry European leaders again, who were already alarmed before the Alaska meeting when the US president suggested land swaps as part of a peace deal.

The three-hour meeting gave Putin — wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine — a chance to end his global isolation. Trump welcomed him in Anchorage with a red carpet and was even seen joking with him before the talks.

During Trump’s call with European leaders on Saturday, Macron told him that Putin cannot be trusted and reminded him of the Minsk ceasefire deal from 10 years ago that Putin never carried out.

“Putin plays a long game and will not keep promises,” said a European diplomat who knew about the call. “Trump is eager to make a deal, but Putin is not in a hurry.”

The Coalition of the Willing — a group of countries that promise to enforce security guarantees for Ukraine after a peace deal — will meet on Sunday, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The coalition includes France, the UK, Germany, Canada, and Japan, among others.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)        

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own and do not reflect those of DNA)

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