The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Every year, it seems like the two are battling down to the wire. The same holds true for 2025. Only this time, the loser might go all the way home.
Even in a year in which the AFC feels wide open with no clear favorite, the Steelers and Ravens’ paths to the postseason are as narrow as ever. Effectively, it exists in only one way. Win the division and grab the No. 4 seed.
Heading into the weekend, this website calculates not only playoff odds but specific seedings and outcomes. There isn’t much guesswork when it comes to the AFC North leaders.
Here’s each team’s chances at each particular seed.
| Seed | Steelers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Seed | <1% | <1% |
| 2 Seed | 2% | <1% |
| 3 Seed | 11% | <1% |
| 4 Seed | 54% | 29% |
| 5 Seed | <1% | <1% |
| 6 Seed | 1% | <1% |
| 7 Seed | 2% | <1% |
| No Playoffs | 30% | 70% |
Put the percentages over fourth seed and no playoffs aside. That can be debated, and most other outlets give the Ravens a much greater chance of capturing the AFC North crown than the numbers above suggest. That will all get decided in Weeks 14 and 18.
Whoever is the loser has an incredibly narrow path to find some other way to the postseason. There might be parity this year, but there’s also strength in the AFC East, South, and West. The Buffalo Bills are unlikely to win the East, but they’re also unlikely to miss the playoffs entirely. They will capture one of the Wild Card seeds. In the South, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are firmly in the Wild Card mix. Houston is a hot team winning without QB C.J. Stroud and possessing arguably the NFL’s best defense.
In the West, the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs are still jockeying for position, with the Denver Broncos likely to take the division.
Knowing the AFC North runner-up will probably finish no better than 9-8, that’s not going to be enough to get one of the final three seeds. The AFC North has only one path to the postseason—the fourth seed. Which means Wild Card weekend, should Pittsburgh get that far, is already written in the stars—the fourth-seed Steelers hosting the fifth-seed. We don’t know who will be the No. 5, but one of the names above will be. Venture a guess, and most likely the Texans or Act II with the Bills.
These numbers will shift over the weeks. If things fall a certain way, perhaps more paths will open up. But those percentages are low, suggesting something radical will have to change for that to happen.
That could make the season finale literally for all the marbles. A situation where the playoff scenario is far simpler than the AP-level course it’s been in years past. If the Steelers win, they’re in. If the Ravens win, they’re in. Loser gets the offseason started.
