Will India-China bonhomie put pressure on US? How may it change geopolitics of South Asia? All eyes set on PM Modi’s China visit as…

Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping (File Image)

General TRENDING NOW

The Chinese assurance to lift export restrictions on fertilisers, rare earth magnets and minerals, and tunnel boring machines to India can be interpreted as a new beginning aimed partly at improving the ties and partly at sending strong signals to a third country, with which both have to compete. In conversation with his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also suggested the two neighbouring countries should “view each other as partners and opportunities, rather than adversaries or threats.” He talked about the resumption of “dialogue at all levels” and “maintenance of peace and tranquillity in border areas” and said that the bilateral ties were on a “positive trend of returning to the main path of cooperation.”

General What did Wang Yi say?

Wang Yi visited India after Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval visited China and held wide-ranging discussions. Though Singh refused to sign the joint declaration at the end of the Shanghai Cooperation Council because it did not mention the Pahalgam terror attack, the relations have improved. Earlier, India also downplayed the Chinese role in the four-day-long India-Pakistan military clash in May. The growing bonhomie between the two nations can be gauged by the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China to attend the SCO summit talks in September. He is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the summit. 

General Does India want to send signals to US?

Is India deliberately moving closer to China to send signals to the US amid growing tension? Despite Modi’s visit to Washington soon after Donald Trump took over and the friendly, personal relations between the two leaders, the US president first imposed a 25% base tariff and then slapped India with an additional 25% tariff for buying Russian oil. Thus, India came under the burdensome tariffs of 50% from its biggest trading partner, with which it enjoys a trade surplus of $46 billion. Though China buys more Russian oil than India and has a trade surplus of $292 billion with the US, Washington chose to scale down tariffs from 145% to 30%. However, China remains the biggest adversary that keeps on challenging the US in all domains, including business. 

General US pushes India to China?

Did the common business interests push India and China to come closer so that they could take on the US? A cursory look at Washington’s trade relations with these two countries can explain a few points. In 2024, the bilateral trade exceeded $128.9 billion. While India exported to the US goods worth $87.3 billion, it imported products worth $41.5 billion. It resulted in a trade surplus of $45.8 billion in favour of India. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, US-China bilateral trade reached $582 billion in 2024. U.S. total goods trade (exports plus imports) with China was an estimated $582.0 billion in 2024. While China exported goods worth $438.7 billion, it imported products worth $143.2 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $295.5 billion. 

Donald Trump first increased tariffs on China to 145% in several retaliatory steps; however, after Beijing banned exports of the rare earth minerals to the US, China rolled down the tariffs to 30%. Hours before the deadline for the trade deal came, Trump extended it for another 90 days. The two sides are holding talks. China wants to put more pressure on the US to squeeze as many concessions as possible. Is it moving towards India for this reason? 

General Geopolitical importance of India

India has a strategically and geopolitically important role to play in the changing world politics and the South Asian defence scenario. Under the Joe Biden administration, India emerged as a main player in the Quad. Washington wanted to use New Delhi as a pawn to checkmate China in South China. Donald Trump continued it with enthusiasm, and a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue was held in Washington immediately after the inauguration of the Trump administration, and Jaishankar attended it. However, it is not certain if the US president will attend the summit scheduled for this year, to be hosted by India. 

General Problems in India-China ties

Besides the Quad and the trade relations, Washington also pinned hopes on India as it has emerged as the second most important country in Asia, after China, which will ultimately be countered by the US. How can it allow India to go to the camp? It has to counter? Similarly, how can New Delhi develop bonhomie with China, with which it shares a disputed border and pockets of disputes like Aksai Chin? On the other hand, Beijing may find it difficult to keep the Tibet issue aside for a long time. So, India and China have to counterbalance each other and be friends at the same time to counter the US, at least for the time being. 

Underlining this issue, the New York Times wrote in an article on Monday, August 18, “It was a pleasant surprise for China that its main global rival, the United States, joined the fight against Beijing’s largest Asian competitor, India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought to bring India closer to the United States and freeze relations with China. Trump is pushing India back to China. Efforts to restore ties between Asian giants are gaining momentum.”

General Eyes set on PM Modi’s China visit

Underlining the importance of India at this juncture, China’s state-controlled media Global Times wrote, “China and India are neighbors, and the list of areas in which they can cooperate is extensive.” Emphasising PM Modi’s visit to China, it wrote, “Modi’s upcoming visit to China is a sign of Washington’s inability to involve New Delhi in its strategy of containing Beijing.” On the other hand, lining the importance of India, Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia, “It is primarily caused by the decline in Western (primarily American) investments in the Indian economy over recent years, the noticeable lag in Indian industrial development programs behind schedule, and India’s desire to diversify sources of investment and technology in the face of international tension and uncertainty associated with the election of Donald Trump.” 

What will happen next? Will the elephant-dragon tango upset Uncle Sam? Will the China-India bonhomie change the South Asia political dynamics?

General FAQs

What is US-China bilateral trade?

US-China bilateral trade reached $582 billion in 2024. U.S. total goods trade (exports plus imports) with China was an estimated $582 billion in 2024. While China exported goods worth $438.7 billion, it imported products worth $143.2 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $295.5 billion. 

Who is Wang Yi?

Wang Yi is the Foreign Minister of China and a Polit Bureau member of the ruling Communist Party of China. 

General Summary 

• China lifts export restrictions on fertilisers, rare earth magnets and minerals, and tunnel boring machines to India.
• The SCO Tianjin Summit 2025 will be held from August 31, 2025, to September 1, 2025. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to attend it.
• US President Donald Trump extends the deadline for the China tariff deal for 90 days to November 10, 2025.

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